Much has happened since England and Eddie Jones last crossed samurai swords in a sweltering Tokyo at the end of June. England have not had another Test match victory in the intervening 155 days and red rose morale has taken a series of hits. Five consecutive losses is in danger of prompting confidence and momentum to drift away among players and fans alike.
Japan, coincidentally, have also endured a lean spell since conceding 52 points to England. Italy and Fiji have both topped 40 points against them, a reshuffled France side rattled up 52 points and New Zealand scored 64 in Yokohama. Last week’s 36-20 win over Uruguay delivered some respite but Jones’s second coming as Japanese head coach is proving a slow burn.
Maybe it just proves what Steve Borthwick keeps saying: that international rugby is about incremental progress and fine margins rather than vertical graphs and instant giant strides. Or is that just the set text coaches recite like the Lord’s Prayer when they’re losing? Look at how Joe Schmidt is transforming the basket case of a Wallaby team he inherited from Jones less than 12 months ago.
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It makes the final international of England’s hitherto blank November an intriguing one psychologically. If Borthwick’s team win by plenty it will not greatly change public perceptions. If the margin is relatively close it will be seen as further evidence of English fragility rather than Japanese improvement. In other words, the lasting autumn damage has already been done.
That does not mean, however, that England have nothing left to play for. Quite the opposite. By not rotating his side – how instructive it would have been to see whether players such as Ted Hill, Cadan Murley, Alex Lozowski, Luke Northmore or Trevor Davidson could have made an impact – Borthwick has invited some familiar faces to right a few wrongs in the name of continuity. And if the home team show more consistent zest, not least in the final quarter, this might yet be a fixture that reboots a few careers and, potentially, the whole Borthwick regime.
In particular it would be lovely to hear the TV commentators – and TNT, for those who have been watching, has been doing a good job – mention one specific word more often. While Borthwick would settle for a three-letter word beginning with a W, there has been a frequent omission under his tutelage and, with apologies to Tammy Wynette, it is spelt O-F-F-L-O-A-D.
In their past five defeats against New Zealand (three times), Australia and South Africa, the opposition have collectively offloaded the ball 50 times. England’s comparative tally is a measly 20. Of course other areas need improvement, from defence to set-piece dominance, but the ability to work an opposing defence slightly harder and shift the point of attack at the last moment is an increasingly vital skill for leading sides.
Australia’s last-gasp winning try a fortnight ago was a classic example and even the glee with which Len Ikitau threw his final backdoor offload to Max Jorgensen was instructive. Test rugby cannot always be a fun factory but players, particularly backs, who are enjoying and expressing themselves tend to play better. A free-spirited Marcus Smith being the perfect case study.
There also seems to be truth in the argument that England’s rush defence works better against average teams than against better opponents with the dexterity, pace, awareness and skill to get around it more often. The game, as Borthwick noted on Friday, is getting faster and is also rewarding a more balanced kicking strategy. Statistically England are averaging just four passes for every kick, the lowest ratio in the Autumn Nations Series. They are also averaging the most kicks per game with 29. In terms of results, however, none of this has borne a huge amount of fruit.
The figures are not great on line breaks, either, with England’s opponents averaging more than nine per game. Worse, missed tackles are costing Borthwick’s side a higher ratio of tries than other teams, which suggests their scramble defence also needs improving. In many ways England’s primary challenge against Japan is not how many points they score but how few they concede.
It is more complicated than just falling off a couple of tackles. In each of their five defeats England have held the lead in the final quarter and let it slip every time. In four of those games, the exception being the helter-skelter defeat by Australia, England failed to score a point in the last 20 minutes. Is that a mental thing or more fitness related? The evidence is not entirely conclusive. While Borthwick has been suggesting his squad were not fit enough at the start of the autumn, Ellis Genge told the Guardian less than a month ago that he was achieving new levels in the gym.
Japan, meanwhile, will miss their suspended lock Warner Dearns and have only seven survivors from the side who last faced England. There will also be a markedly different feel to the contest played in the 30C heat of Tokyo just over five months ago. Their “go faster” style of rugby, known as Chosoku, remains an ambition and they can certainly offload when the mood takes them. The wing Jone Naikabula, scorer of an excellent early try against the All Blacks in Yokohama, is one to watch but the golden generation who saw off South Africa in the 2015 World Cup pool stages have moved on.
So what will Borthwick and Jones be thinking when they shake hands? The old master-and-apprentice scenario has been superseded by more basic instincts. Borthwick wants a win; Jones, who has been unwell this week, will not want his face on the big screen unless Japan are causing their hosts some problems. While the Aussie ninja warrior would love to make his former employers’ autumn even more uncomfortable it can only be hoped that England fans show him suitable courtesy and respect.
A competitive spectacle would also remind the Rugby Football Union’s executives that sacking one conductor does not necessarily transform an entire orchestra. Are England in better shape than they were just prior to Jones’s removal? Or, in terms of on-field improvement, has there been no real discernible change? For those at the sharp end this fixture will feel anything but an afterthought.
