Choice of annoying party TDs or alienating Tánaiste with November or February datesVote transfers between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil viewed as vital to outcome of final seats
The Taoiseach has two windows available to him for a general election date, the Irish Independent has learnt: mid-November to early December, or else next February.
But Mr Harris is trying to keep Mr Martin onside as he knows transfers between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be vital to the parties’ chances of winning seats.
The Tánaiste has set out his stall that the Government has to see out its full term in office, up until next year, to pass any remaining laws. The Fianna Fáil leader was positioning himself as the leader interested in governing, in contrast to the Fine Gael leader campaigning.
Fine Gael strategists point to the agreement between the parties on migration policies in the run-up to the local and European elections as a sign of what will be required.
“There won’t be a vote transfer pact, but it’s not good or wise for the two main parties to be falling out. We need to transfer to each other,” a Fine Gael strategist said.
Mr Harris will have to signal by early next month if there is going to be a general election this side of Christmas.
The absolute last possible date for a general election this year is viewed as December 6. Double social welfare and Child Benefit payments for Christmas are paid that week.
The end of February is far enough away from Christmas and at the end of the Coalition’s time in office.
The last general election was at the start of February 2020 and called in the second week of January.
“It’s a catch-22 now. If he waits until February, then it’s three months of the backbenchers and others saying he bottled it. Go early and you have people saying we weren’t true to our word. So you can’t win,” a party source said.
The Taoiseach will head to Washington next week to meet US president Joe Biden at the White House. No other political leaders from Ireland will attend the special ceremony to mark 100 years of diplomatic relations with the US.
‘If he waits until February, then it’s three months of the backbenchers and others saying he bottled it’
The election will be held on a Friday, as there is a sense that a Saturday did not work last time as it was too disruptive to routines.
The Taoiseach has four weeks to signal his intentions.
If a general election has not been called by mid-November, it won’t be happening before Christmas. More likely, though, is that the Taoiseach will have given a clear statement of his intentions at that stage after discussing the election date with his fellow coalition leaders, Mr Martin and Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman.
The Taoiseach’s camp say the date of the general election will not come as a surprise to the other coalition leaders.
“It won’t be a call to the Tánaiste to say we will be calling it tomorrow. It will be about sitting down and discussing it, deciding upon the right time and saying are we going or not,” a source said.
Mr Martin made his clearest statement yet on the Government seeing out its full term and outlined the range of work still to be done before a general election.
However, there is a view within the Government that not all of that legislation will have passed all stages. The Finance Bill and Social Welfare Bill, bringing the budget measures into effect, will be passed by the end of this month. The Planning Bill will finish in the Dáil next week. But the Mental Health Bill and the Defamation Bill are unlikely to be passed before the general election.
Mr Martin has put it up to the Taoiseach by ruling out an early election following this week’s Budget. Mr Harris has repeatedly failed to say he will wait until next year to call a general election.
“Most of all, we have to show that we can be true to our word in putting the people before politics. Governing is much harder work than campaigning. It requires focus. It requires a willingness to listen, study and then act,” Mr Martin said.
‘Governing is much harder work than campaigning. It requires focus.’
The Tánaiste will address the Fianna Fáil annual dinner tonight, where he is again expected to say the Coalition will see out its full term.
The Fine Gael side feels there is not much difference between the two leaders, given the Halloween and Christmas breaks to be taken by the Dáil. However, it is concerned that a rift in the coalition parties would put voters off voting for either party.
The parties will be closely watching opinion poll results this weekend to see if there is any electoral bump off the €10bn Budget.
The big budget packages of the past two years have not resulted in any dividend for the coalition parties.
