Australians could be in for a wet summer as experts warn of an increased risk of La Nina conditions.
Sky News Weather meteorologist Alison Osbourne explained the country has been on a La Nina watch over the last four months, meaning there’s been a 50 per cent chance of the wetter weather system.
“The reason why we’ve been in that holding pattern over recent months is we haven’t seen any strong shift until now towards an increased likelihood of this phenomenon kicking in,” Ms Osbourne said.
“At this stage we are predicting at Sky News Weather that it is looking more likely than that 50 per cent chance but it is developing much later than usual.”
Ms Osbourne said historically, La Nina summers have had an “above average influence on our rainfall”, especially in the country’s north and east.
Above average tropical storms could also be on the way for Australians, however Sky News Weather has predicted the number will fall close to the average tropical cyclone season of between nine and 11 cyclones forming in Australian waters between November and April.
However, the cyclones could be “more severe” than usual.
“Just remember the number of cyclones doesn’t usually translate to the severity of those cyclones, and at this stage we are looking at the heightened risk of more severe tropical cyclone activity,” Ms Osbourne said.
“We have historically seen at least one system make landfall every single season since those reliable records began, so if you do live in a northern region of Australia, regardless of the tropical cyclone outlook you should be absolutely preparing for the season now.”
Ms Osbourne also predicted Queensland, parts of NSW and potentially Victoria may have a heightened storm risk due to the chance of “moisture laden air”.
“So those rain bearing systems pushing into those regions, then also above average temperatures — so two very key ingredients to have those dangerous high end thunderstorms which can bring those large hailstones those destructive winds,” she said.
Temperatures are set to continue an “ongoing trend” of being above average.
NSW BATTERED BY UP TO 95MM OF RAIN
The warning comes as the country is set to be battered by rain and storms this week, with the Bureau of Meteorology confirming up to 95mm of rain has already been recorded in parts of NSW.
Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said a cold front swept up the southern and central parts of NSW, which reached the Illawarra just before midnight before hitting Sydney early Thursday morning.
“It brought a really strong, really windy southerly change, as well as increasing rain and showers for much of eastern NSW and the ACT,” Ms Bradbury said.
“To six-o’clock Thursday we’ve seen widespread totals of 15-30mm across southeastern NSW, including the southern slopes and Tablelands, the south coast and Illawarra, but extending inland across the central west as well.
“Higher falls of 40-80mm have already been recorded about the southern slope, Thredbo has seen 78mm to six-o-clock this morning, Toonumbar Dam has received 95mm.”
Ms Bradbury said the heaviest falls are focused through the northern parts of the south coast and the Illawarra as of 6am Thursday, however the widespread rain is set to spread to much of eastern NSW throughout the day.
The central west and the north east are also set to experience rain, with 20-40mm predicted across those areas through Thursday.
“Thunderstorms may also generate locally heavier downpours across northern NSW today. We may also see thunderstorms across southern inland and western Queensland as well as central parts of the Northern Territory,” Ms Bradbury said.
There is a low flood risk, however there is a chance of flash flooding on Thursday.
“This would happen very quickly and then ease again within a short period of time,” Ms Bradbury said.
“This is particularly likely if rainfall is more persistent or heavier than expected in certain areas.”
Sydney is set to reach a high of 15C on Thursday with a high chance of rain, while Victoria is tipped to reach a similar high of 14C with a medium chance of showers in the morning.
Brisbane is forecast to reach 29C with a high chance of showers in the evening, with Perth tipped to hit 28C with a slight chance of showers later in the day.
Adelaide is expected to be 18C and sunny on Thursday while Tasmania is forecast to hit 13C with a slight chance of showers.
Canberra is tipped to hit 12C with a very high chance of rain, and Darwin is expected to reach a high of 33C with the slight chance of showers.
