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Sunday, October 13, 2024

China to raise retirement age as demographic crisis looms

Another sardonic comment read, “I’m really worried that when I’m 70 and go for an interview, my resume will be dozens of pages long, and HR might question why there was a gap when I was 25. But because of dementia, I won’t even be able to remember it!”

Raising the retirement age would ease pressure on the pension system at a time when local and provincial governments are facing massive budget deficits. Adding to the pressure is the fact that people are living longer in China, where life expectancy was 78 in 2021 compared with 51 in 1962, according to the World Bank.

By 2035, the number of people 60 and older in China will exceed 450 million, or 32.7% of the total population, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The workforce needed to support the retirement-age population is also shrinking, with the number of births falling 10% in 2022 to their lowest level on record. Last year, China fell to the world’s second-most-populous country after India.

China’s decision to delay its retirement ages stems from a “really difficult” fiscal situation, said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis in Hong Kong.

“Local governments simply don’t have the funds and pension payments are still decentralized,” she told NBC News.

But it will take time for the impact to be felt, García-Herrero said.

“China is starting late and from a very low level,” she said. “Even by 2040, the legal retirement age will still be low, comparatively, and still not gender-aligned.”

On Weibo, commenters lamented the country’s economic and demographic predicament.

“Young people can’t find jobs, and the elderly aren’t allowed to retire.”

Jennifer Jett and Peter Guo reported from Hong Kong, and Rae Wang from Beijing.

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