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‘Property prices are only going in one direction’ – surge in market as panic buying takes hold

‘Property prices are only going in one direction’ – surge in market as panic buying takes hold

A leading economist said prices were rising so fast that panic buying had now gripped the market.

The prediction comes after prices in the year to July surged by close to 10pc, according to the latest Central Statistics Office figures.

The monthly rise between June and July was 1.2pc, one of the highest rises in almost three years.

Prices have now risen so much that only 14pc of single earners would be able to afford a typically priced house.

Today’s News in 90 seconds – 19th September 2024

Dan O’Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin and a senior fellow at UCD, said the rise between June and July was one of the highest monthly increases since the pandemic price surge.

“Annual increases are about to move into double digits. With demand outstripping supply by so much, prices are only going in one direction,” he said.

The figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) indicate that demand is outstripping supply to such an extent that prices rose for the 11th month in a row.

They were up by 9.6pc in the year to July. This means the pace of increases has again picked up.

Prices in Dublin rose by 10.3pc and prices outside Dublin were up by 9.1pc.

The middle, or median, price of a house in the year to July was €340,000, the CSO said.

Independent economist Austin Hughes said the monthly increase in July was the highest in 32 months.

He said the key factor remains a shortfall in supply, but there are also signs of a further step-up in demand likely fuelled by the prospect of an easing in borrowing costs.

“It is also fed by some element of panic buying because of the lack of supply and the acceleration in prices of late,” Mr Hughes said.

He said greater delivery of new builds should slow house price inflation somewhat in the months ahead, but it now looks like we could see 10pc-plus property price inflation by the autumn.

“With near double-digit property-price inflation, home ownership is becoming further out of the reach of the majority of those in the first-time buyer age and earnings brackets.”

He said that with the median house price at €340,000 in July, a first-time buyer would need an income of €76,500 (assuming a 10pc deposit) to be able to buy.

Mr Hughes said that separate CSO data on earnings for last year shows that, on the basis of such a median property price, only 14pc of single-income earners would qualify for a mortgage for the median-priced property.

Less than half of two-income ­buyers – assuming they both had the same earnings – would qualify.

The highest house price growth in Dublin was in south Dublin at 12.1pc, while Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown experienced a rise of 8.3pc.

The region outside of Dublin that had the largest rise in house prices was the mid-west, which covers Clare, ­Limerick and Tipperary, at 13.4pc.

At the other end of the scale, the south-east (Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford, and Wexford) had a 6.1pc rise.

In July 4,723 dwelling purchases by households at market prices were filed with the Revenue Commissioners, an increase of 13.2pc when compared with the 4,174 purchases in July last year.

The lowest median price paid for a dwelling was €171,000 in Longford.

The most expensive Eircode area over the 12 months to July 2024 was D06 – Dublin 6 – with a median price of €750,000, while F45 Castlerea had the least expensive price of €140,000.

Residential property prices of new homes in the second quarter of this year were 7.4pc higher than in the same three-month period last year.

Prices of second-hand homes in the second quarter of this year were 8.6pc ­higher than in the corresponding quarter of last year.

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