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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Warriors-Thunder prediction, pick, how to watch

The Golden State Warriors (34-31) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (30-34) on Tuesday night! Action tips off at p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Thunder prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Golden State has won five of its last six games and sits in fifth place in the Western Conference. The Warriors covered 48% of their games while 56% went over the projected point total. Oklahoma City has won two straight but remains in 13th place in the West. The Thunder covered 61% of their games while 59% went over. This will be the third of four meetings between the conference foes. Golden State won both prior meetings by eight and 27 points.

Here are the Warriors-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Odds: Warriors-Thunder Odds

Golden State Warriors: -4.5 (-108)

Oklahoma City Thunder: +4.5 (-112)

Over: 243 (-110)

Under: 243 (-110)

How To Watch Warriors vs. Thunder

TV: NBCS Bay Area, Bally Oklahoma

Stream: NBA League Pass

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread

The Warriors enter tonight’s game in a strong spot in the Western Conference as they are a full game ahead of the seventh-place Mavericks. Golden State features an explosive offense that ranks third in the league with 118.0 PPG. They are the single-best passing team in the league thanks to their 29.6 APG. With those extra passes, the Warriors generate a ton of open looks from beyond the arc. Their 16.5 made threes per game lead the league while their 38% three-point percentage ranks fourth. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight considering the Thunder allow the seventh-most threes per game.

Golden State saw a five-game winning streak get snapped in Sunday’s loss to the Lakers but they did get some good news via the return of Steph Curry. Curry returned from injury following a month-long absence and looked like he hadn’t missed a beat, scoring 27 points and dishing out six assists. Curry was tremendous prior to missing time as he averages 29.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 6.4 APG for the season. That includes tremendous efficiency numbers of 49% overall, 43% from three, and 93% from the line. Steph dropped 38 points and 12 assists the last time Golden State visited Oklahoma City as he should be in line for a big night tonight.

The return of Steph could also do wonders for the stock of Klay Thompson. Klay performed well with Steph out, averaging 27.1 PPG in the 11 games that Steph missed. He averaged 5.6 threes per game during that stretch while shooting an astronomical 46% from beyond the arc. With Curry back, Klay’s numbers may go down but he should get much easier looks from three. That being said, his play with Curry out did solidify that Thompson is, indeed, fully back after receiving from an injury in the off-season.

Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread

Oklahoma City still has a chance to make things interesting in the Western Conference as they sit just 0.5 games back of the No. 9 seed. The Thunder feature an absolutely lethal offense that puts up 118.2 PPG – the second-highest mark in the league. Contrary to their opponents tonight, the Thunder do most of their work inside the arc as their 55.6 points in the paint per game ranks third in the NBA. The Thunder play at a frantic pace as they attempt the most shots per game in the league. Defensively, the Thunder struggle at times to contain opposing offenses but they do an excellent job forcing turnovers. That could be a major factor tonight considering the Warriors average the second-most turnovers per game.

Oklahoma City is led by breakout star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has been tremendous this season, averaging 31.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 5.7 APG. In addition to his incredible offensive production, the 24-year-old has been a menace on the defensive end. His 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks show his versatility as he has developed into one of the premier guards in the league. Although he missed time with an injury, SGA returned on Sunday and promptly dropped 38 points in their win over Utah. While he hasn’t had a ton of success against the Warriors in two prior meetings, expect a big night from him at home.

The X-factor for the Thunder tonight is wing Josh Giddey. Then second-year pro has really taken a step forward this season, averaging 16.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 6.1 APG. At 6’8″ Giddey is big enough to guard a number of positions while still serving as an elite playmaker on the offensive end. A nightly threat to amass a triple-double, Giddey should be in for a big night against Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defense.

Final Warriors-Thunder Prediction & Pick

Golden State has owned OKC thus far but I like the Thunder to keep things tight tonight as home underdogs.

Final Warriors-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-112)

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