Week 4 Expected Points: Is Roschon Johnson the RB solution in Chicago?

Running Backs

Week 3 Expected Points

Roschon Johnson (CHI, 11.8 Expected Points)

The Bears running game is atrocious. D’Andre Swift, who was signed to a three-year, $24 million contract this offseason, has rushed for 68 scoreless yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and has caught only six passes on 10 targets. Currently the RB27 in expected fantasy points (34.4), Swift’s negative 15.0 fantasy points over expected ranks 114th at the position.

It doesn’t help that the Bears ranked 31st as a team in yards before contact per attempt (0.71 YBCO/ATT), but it’s far easier to replace the starter at running back than it is to replace an entire offensive line.

Enter Roschon Johnson.

The second-year back saw his first offensive touches of the season in Week 3, and rushed eight times for 30 yards while adding another four receptions for 32 yards. His 11.8 expected points ranked 25th at the position on the week, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this week that Johnson could see an “extended look” in Week 4’s contest against the Rams.

It’s a risky proposition to bet on this Bears rushing attack as a whole, but the Rams have allowed 24.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. They’ve also allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (177.0) and rank 22nd in YBCO/ATT in their own right (1.85).

Fantasy managers needing a dart throw at running back can consider Johnson based on last week’s usage and his rumored uptick in touches this week.

Tony Pollard (TEN, 7.0 Expected Points)

Tony Pollard saw limited work in Week 3 in the Titans’ 30-14 blowout loss. The Titans’ RB1 rushed six times for 14 yards and caught three passes for another 15 yards — an admittedly brutal display of offense for Pollard and the Titans as a whole.

Despite just 7.0 expected points in the loss, Pollard had weeks of 13.2 and 19.9 expected fantasy points in the Titans’ first two games and is the RB20 in expected fantasy points on the year. He’s also starting down the barrel of a potentially juicy Week 4 matchup against the Dolphins.

Miami’s offense is in shambles with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out at least three more games, and backup Skylar Thompson (chest) is not expected to play in this Monday’s contest. Tyler Huntley, who joined the team after the injury to Tagovailoa, could draw the start — which may actually be the best-case scenario for the Dolphins — but expectations are low for them in this one.

The Dolphins’ defense has also been a favorable run for opposing running backs, as they’ve allowed 28.2 points per game to opposing running backs thus far. Things didn’t go well for Pollard last week, but he had two RB2 finishes to open the year and was the RB13 in Week 1 against the Bears.

There’s a chance for Pollard and the Titans to have a very positive game script in this one, and he’s still cemented as the team’s RB1. Don’t let Week 3’s flop force you off of him in Week 4.

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Wide Receivers

Week 3 Expected Points

Michael Wilson (ARI, 14.2 Expected Points)

After catching just three passes for 36 yards through the first two weeks, Michael Wilson surprised with a nine-target outing in Week 3 against the Lions and caught eight passes for 64 yards. Wilson has run the second-most routes (88) of any player in Arizona’s offense, splitting time both outside and in the slot (30.5 percent slot rate).

His Week 4 matchup against the Commanders may be the juiciest he’ll see all season.

We’re still early into the Dan Quinn era in Washington, but the aftershock left by the Ron Rivera is still being felt early on.

Through three weeks, the Commanders’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed per game (29.3) and is 31st in passing yards per game (255.7). The nine touchdown passes they’ve allowed are the most of any team.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense have been dealing in the passing game. Currently sitting on a 635-5-1 line, Murray’s 16 deep attempts (passes of 20-plus air yards) are the third most of any quarterback in the league, trailing only Caleb Williams (19) and Dak Prescott (17). Wilson has seen only two of these targets but hauled in both for 51 scoreless yards.

Tight end Trey McBride (concussion) hasn’t practiced this week and is at serious risk of missing Sunday’s contest. If he’s out, Wilson should see plenty of opportunities in a game that currently has a total of 50.5 on Bet MGM Sportsbook — the highest of any on the Week 4 slate. In deeper leagues where you can start four or five receivers, Wilson is an enticing play, specifically if McBride sits.

Terry McLaurin (WSH, 9.9 Expected Points)

Why not play both sides of this matchup? Terry McLaurin erupted for 20.0 fantasy points in the Commanders’ Week 3 win over the Bengals but was the WR42 in expected fantasy points on the week at 9.9. McLaurin’s 10.1 FPOE in the matchup — which came courtesy of a 55-yard reception in the second quarter and a 27-yard receiving touchdown in the final two minutes of the game — helped carry his 4-100-1 performance on a six-target outing.

McLaurin had an underwhelming first two weeks playing in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal raid offense, and he ranks 31st amongst all receivers in total targets (18), but like Michael Wilson, he also gets a juicy matchup. As a defense, the Cardinals rank 31st in YPA (8.9), and 32nd in quarterback completion percentage (75.3 percent). They’ve also allowed the third-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (114.4) on the year.

Week 3 marked the first time we finally saw McLaurin’s ability to stretch the fieldwork with Jayden Daniels’ highly-touted deep ball. In a game that projects as a potential shootout, McLaurin hooking up with Daniels on another deep pass or two is very much in the cards. Even if that doesn’t come to fruition, he’s the unquestioned WR1 in an offense that is short on receiving talent behind him. Satellite back Austin Ekeler is also unlikely to play in this one after suffering a concussion against the Bengals and getting a short week to clear concussion protocol.

Tight Ends

Week 3 Expected Points

Dallas Goedert (PHI, 15.8 Expected Points)

The Eagles’ situation at receiver paved the way for Dallas Goedert to churn out 27.0 fantasy points in their Week 3 win over the Saints. Already down A.J. Brown, the Eagles lost DeVonta Smith to a concussion last week, and both Brown and Smith have yet to practice prior to this article being published on Friday.

There’s a very real chance that the Eagles’ top three receivers in Week 4 are Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson. If this is the case, it will be another wheels-up week for Goedert against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers have only allowed 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but the only tight end of note they’ve played is Sam LaPorta, who has just eight receptions for 94 yards through three weeks. Goedert played 22 of his 42 snaps from the slot last week, and the Buccaneers have allowed the 10th most receptions in the slot on the year.

Goedert will be a must-start in Week 4 if the Eagles are without their top two receivers.

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 11.9 Expected Points)

Tyler Conklin was one of my favorite late-round tight ends all offseason. He looked like a massive bust through the first two weeks of the season, catching just two passes for 16 yards, but broke out for five catches and 93 yards in Week 3 against the Patriots.

While the receptions haven’t always been there for Conklin, his 94 routes run are good for third-most at his position. Amongst 29 tight ends who have seen eight or more targets, Conklin ranks top 10 in:

• Yard Per Reception – 15.6 (1st)

• Yards After Catch per Reception – 6.6 (5th)

• Average Depth of Target – 8.6 (7th)

He’s now drawing a Week 4 matchup against the Broncos, and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who has allowed just 63 receiving yards this season, per PFF, is expected to spend a lot of time covering Garrett Wilson.

If Surtain puts the clamps on Wilson, Aaron Rodgers will be forced to find other outlets in the passing game. Knowing this, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise to know that the Broncos are allowing 10.3 points per game to opposing tight ends — a number that would undoubtedly yield a TE1 fantasy week at a position so starved of production.

Fantasy managers in need of help at the position can consider Conklin a viable streaming option in what could be a plus matchup against the Broncos.