Watching the excellent fly-on-the-wall documentary chronicling South Africa’s journey to their World Cup triumph in Paris last year serves as an insightful reminder as to just how close England came to derailing their campaign.
Steve Borthwick’s side, after a wretched year, produced a tactical masterclass in the driving rain at the Stade de France in the semi-final. Alex Mitchell’s relentless kicking, the brilliance of the aerial contests from Jonny May, Elliot Daly and Freddie Steward, Ben Earl’s ferocious carrying and the snarling leadership of Owen Farrell rocked the Springboks until the introduction of Ox Nche from the bench demolished England’s scrum and snatched the game from their grasp.
The action is compelling and should serve as a reminder to Borthwick’s side at Twickenham on Saturday that with a combination of street-sharpness, relentless energy and physicality, they can take the world champions right to the wire again.
And yet there is also a clip in the Chasing the Sun 2 documentary that stood out and one which is even more pertinent to Borthwick’s England and hopes of arresting the succession of last-gasp defeats that have become too frequent to be explained as misfortune.
It is a quote from Felix Jones, at the time South Africa’s attack coach, who is now serving out his 12-month notice period from Dublin after resigning as England’s defence coach in August.
“A lot of teams probably didn’t have them on their radar, but we could tell very quickly they were playing a really smart, Test-winning game plan, very similar to how we had approached 2019,” says Jones.
The documentary then cuts to a team meeting, at which Jones attempts to emphasise to the Springboks’ squad the type of game plan they would face from England.
“If I could sum up their soul in two words, it is statistics or ‘Moneyball’ and kicking game. That is it, that is their big thing.” It then shows Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus explain in greater detail England’s kicking game in front of a overhead projector which included an article written by Telegraph Sport writer Charlie Morgan which detailed how Borthwick had previously guided Leicester Tigers to the Premiership title in 2022 based on “Data science and Moneyball”.
The disclosures reveal two key points. First that Borthwick’s tactical wherewithal was highly respected behind the scenes by the Springboks but also secondly that their opinion was that he relies heavily on data in his decision-making.
During the World Cup last year, it was a policy that squeezed the best performance out of an ageing squad but had the big-game experience, mental toughness and physicality of players like Farrell, Courtney Lawes, Manu Tuilagi and Joe Marler. With just nine months to weld together a World Cup squad having been parachuted into the England head coach job following the sacking of Eddie Jones, the ‘Moneyball’ strategy proved its worth.
Yet a year later, there is a feeling that may be now holding England back. The decision to replace Marcus Smith on the 62nd minute in the defeat by New Zealand, and then to switch him to full-back at the same time in the defeat by Australia is perhaps the most telling demonstration of decisions that are weighted too heavily on data science rather than gut feel.
What is not in doubt is that England have taken significant strides forward this year, since the defeat by Scotland in February. The evolution of the side has been fast-tracked to the extent that there are just five of today’s starting XV who played in the World Cup.
Younger players are being transitioned into the side in year one of the World Cup cycle, players who are likely to be around next two tournaments and the experience of playing against the southern hemisphere big three, and understanding why they lost in the final quarter against New Zealand and Australia will be notches on their game development, in a similar fashion to how a young Springboks side lost to Italy in Florence in 2016, three years before lifting the Webb Ellis Cup three years later in Japan.
Yet coaches must evolve too. The Rugby Football Union have already made it clear that Borthwick’s position is not under threat, even if England lose to South Africa today and finish the calendar year with just four wins. It is the right decision. While Borthwick’s tenure is deep into its second year, this is the first of a rebuilding phase and despite the run of defeats, England have become a much better team to watch and they are capable of serving up periods of excellence, if not yet an 80-minute performance. Greater clarity is required in their defensive strategy too.
The disruption caused by losing two key personnel from the coaching ticket, including Jones, has not helped, and Borthwick’s assistants (Andrew Strawbridge aside) are relatively inexperienced in comparison to their rivals. But perhaps the biggest step forward is for the head coach to trust his own instincts and prove there really is more to England’s soul than kicking and ‘Moneyball’.
