Wales will hope to avoid the ignominy of losing 11 Test matches on the bounce when they welcome Australia to the Principality Stadium on Sunday.
Warren Gatland is under huge pressure to turn around Wales’ fortunes but they face a stern challenge against a Wallabies side who stunned England at Twickenham last weekend. There are four changes to the Wales side which lost to Fiji with Ellis Bevan replacing the injured Tomos Williams while Tom Rogers comes in for Mason Grady who was forced off the field with an ankle injury last time out.
James Botham and Jac Morgan also come into the backrow as Wales look for a bit more punch against the Wallabies. Here are our score predictions from our expert writers…
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Ben James: I just don’t believe Wales can get over the line
“And let that be a lesson to you all. Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a rows.”
It’s one of the all-time famous lines in sport, uttered by the Lithuanian-born American tennis player after beating compatriot Jimmy Connors after 16 unsuccessful attempts back in 1979.
However, a year later, someone – namely Bjorn Borg – did beat Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row. Moral of the story? There’s always a little further to fall.
Wales haven’t exactly come out and exclaimed ‘Wales don’t lose 11 in a row’, but all the talk from camp is about turning narrow losses into wins and how it’s going to happen at some point. And sure, there have been some near-misses across this year, but Wales are becoming something of a self-fulfilling prophecy at the minute.
They don’t look like a team capable of getting over the line in the final quarter. Wallabies forwards coach Laurie Fisher was describing Wales’ driving maul as one of the best in the world earlier this week, yet they didn’t make enough of it against Fiji – even taking the ball out of the maul in the final play of the match while chasing victory.
When you’re a team full of confidence and accustomed to winning, you tend to make the right calls in those positions. Wales aren’t and don’t.
There’s talent in this side – and Wales will look to mix their driving maul with a smart kicking game and occasional flashes from their backline, just as they did against the Wallabies in the summer – but do they have the carrying power to match Australia? Probably not.
Of course, the Wallabies have a habit of being unable to back up big wins, so there’s perhaps the danger that this one turns into whoever can deal with those intrusive thoughts better – a movable object versus a resistible force situation.
Nobody beats Vitas Gerulatis 17 times in a row, until they did.
Wales haven’t lost 11 in a row at Test level. I fear they will this weekend.
Wales 22-31 Australia
Steffan Thomas: Wales will be better but Australia will run away with it in the final quarter
Let’s not beat around the bush; if Wales perform as they did against Fiji then they will set a new record of 11 successive Test match defeats in a row. Such a scenario would have been unthinkable just a few short years ago but Wales have fallen off a cliff since then.
Just over a year ago Australia were also in the doldrums and got thrashed 40-6 by Wales at the Rugby World Cup under previous head coach Eddie Jones. But since former Ireland boss Joe Schmidt has taken the reins they have been on an upward trajectory.
The Wallabies tore England to shreds at times last weekend and their first victory at Twickenham for nine years will likely be a turning point for Schmidt’s men. Sunday’s visitors have X-factor players throughout their backline, even without former NRL superstar Joseph Suaalii starting.
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The likes of Samu Kerevi, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright, among others, are potent attacking players, while their pack has improved tenfold since Schmidt took over with the Wallabies refusing to take a backwards step in the physical stakes against England. If Wales miss 33 tackles and 12 penalties as they did against Fiji then they will almost certainly be on the end of a heavy defeat.
But even though Australia have found their groove, it was only a couple of months ago they conceded 67 points in what was an embarrassing defeat against Argentina. They have come on leaps and bounds since then but they were heavy underdogs at Twickenham and it was almost a case of nothing to lose yet everything to gain.
But this Sunday they will be firm favourites and there is pressure on the Wallabies to back up their Twickenham exploits in Cardiff, while they will also have to make do without their captain Harry Wilson who was outstanding in the victory over England. Whereas Australia will be full of confidence, Wales are stuck in a rut.
The pressure on Gatland is enormous, with a host of his former players lining up to question the New Zealander’s position as head coach. They might say otherwise but the players are bound to be lacking in confidence given they’ve lost their previous 10 Test matches.
Wales do have players like Blair Murray and Ben Thomas who can hurt the Wallabies in attack, while the return of the influential Jac Morgan into the backrow certainly improves their chances, but I have two big concerns.
The first one is a lack of size throughout the team in comparison to the Wallabies. Wales got outmuscled against Fiji and lost the physical battle by a mile so this needs to be rectified if they are to end their losing run.
Secondly this side has forgotten how to win. During the final quarter of the Fiji game there was a sense that Wales were beginning to panic, while they made some very poor decisions under pressure.
I think Wales will be better this week and give Australia a run for their money but the Wallabies should have too much and run away with it in the final quarter.
Wales 24-35 Australia
John Jones: An unwanted record awaits despite improvements
It’s only 14 months ago that Wales put Australia well and truly to the sword on that glorious night in Lyon, with the 40-6 scoreline representing a record win over the Wallabies for a Welsh side.
Now, however, Gatland and his squad are staring down the barrel of another record and it is one that is most unwanted. Lose in Cardiff on Sunday and Wales will set a new record losing streak of 11 successive Test matches.
That statistic is damning in isolation but with the small matter of the visit of the world champion Springboks to contend with before a return to Six Nations actions in the new year, the situation looks increasingly daunting.
It is hard to see where the next win is going to come from and this clash with the Wallabies is now of the utmost significance with Gatland under mounting pressure and fielding stinging criticism from former players.
Despite the external noise, however, the mood in Wales camp this week has, by all accounts, been one of steely resolve and focus. On the surface, at least, there’s no panic. A few tweaks are needed, rather than lengthy surgery, it seems.
“We’re one score away,” said captain Dewi Lake this week, as he identified Wales’ discipline and failure to take chances as the major issues that still need resolving.
Of course, they do – but that has been the case for a long time and change never seems to come. Defiant words are all well and good but mean nothing if you can’t back it up on the pitch and whether those major fixes will finally come against a powerful Wallabies side brimming with confidence after beating England, I’m not sure.
The physical battle against Fiji was not much of a contest and Joe Schmidt’s side aren’t short of hard-hitters either. Even with the return of the exceptional Jac Morgan to the starting pack, it could well be another bruising afternoon for the men in red, who will need to be at their absolute best to manage both their discipline and the physicality of the opposition.
I’m sure we will see some improvements, with a back row of Morgan, James Botham and a fitter Aaron Wainwright set to provide a fierce challenge to their Australian counterparts, while the Welsh lineout was immeasurably better against the Fijians last weekend.
Make no mistake, however, Wales will have to be at their very best to get a result. But being at your best requires confidence and that comes from winning – and this Welsh side are stuck in a rut to the point where they have simply forgotten how to win.
I hope, for Welsh rugby’s sake, that I’m wrong but I can’t see that changing on Sunday. I think Wales will again end up “one score away” in a result that will sadly condemn this side to the history books for the wrong reasons.
Wales 19-25 Australia
