There are many who believe a decision on Warren Gatland’s future as Wales boss will hinge on the result of this Saturday’s Test match, if it hasn’t been decided already.
Gatland cut a defiant figure in today’s press conference and insists he is fully committed to staying in the job despite huge pressure growing on the shoulders of the Wales boss. Whether Gatland is given his marching orders or not remains to be seen, but should Wales fall to a 12th straight defeat it will be the first time since 1937 they will have gone through a calendar year without a single Test match victory.
There are two big reasons behind Wales’ dire form. The first is the clear lack of experience within the squad which has resulted in poor decisions being made under pressure and a lack of problem-solving on the field.
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Secondly, Wales do not possess the enormous forwards of Saturday’s visitors South Africa and have been physically bullied all too often. The chances of that changing this weekend are extremely remote.
Gatland has made four personnel changes and one positional to face the double world champions. The biggest concern for Wales is the lack of experience within their matchday squad.
This may not be South Africa’s strongest squad but Rassie Erasmus has still selected 970 caps worth of experience, while Wales’ 23 only have 334 caps between them. The disparity in experience is no more striking than in the backline. With veteran playmaker Gareth Anscombe excluded, the Wales backline only has 61 caps between them.
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It is no wonder then to see Gatland’s men struggle to close out tight games. Clearly this will be a big game for Sam Costelow, who has been given the nod having trained well all autumn, according to Gatland.
Costelow’s talent is not in doubt but his form has been shaky for the Scarlets this season and whether he has the confidence and the authority to manage a game against the Springboks remains to be seen. This lack of experience and know how has crippled Wales throughout the course of their horrible run of form.
If there is one potential weak link in the Springboks side it may be outside-half Jordan Hendrikse, who is set win only his second cap, However, the Sharks playmaker is likely to have an armchair ride from his pack. Gatland has even rolled the dice on Blair Murray who is set to start his first professional start at full-back.
Murray is a deadly broken field runner who could hurt the very best of defences if put in space but there will be concerns surrounding his defence. The 23-year-old’s missed tackle on Australia full-back Tom Wright cost Wales an early try and the Springboks will no doubt test his aerial skills.
Gatland has opted not to break up the centre partnership of Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn who have both shown glimpses of a healthy future if they are given a run of games. If put on the front foot Thomas has the potential to create opportunities for the likes of Murray, Tom Rogers and the Rio Dyer who will have a point to prove after getting dropped for the opening two games against Fiji and Australia.
But the backline will face a stern physical challenge and will have to make it difficult for the Springboks to cross the gain line. Damian de Allende can lay claim to the title of the best inside centre on the planet and will certainly target both Costelow and Thomas. De Allende has hurt Wales before at the 2019 Rugby World Cup semi-final and caused havoc against England.
The 32-year-old ran straight through England backrower Ben Earl and centre Henry Slade to set up Cheslin Kolbe for the decisive try. Wales backrowers James Botham and Jac Morgan will have to stop de Allende because if he is allowed to get over the gainline then the hosts won’t be able to stop him.
The thought of Kolbe, Jesse Kriel and Kurt-Lee Arendse getting front foot ball on Saturday doesn’t bear thinking about. Wales’ scrum went exceptionally well against the Wallabies three days ago but the Springboks will offer a far tougher threat.
Gatland has high hopes for Archie Griffin who gave Australia’s Angus Bell a torrid time last Sunday but he will face a significantly sterner examination against the world class Ox Nche. It is difficult to see a Wales coming close to matching the power of the Springboks pack, especially when they’ve got the likes of Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman and Malcolm Marx on the bench.
