5 things to watch for at the VP debate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, NBC News staffers break down what they are watching for at the vice presidential debate. Plus, national political correspondent looks at how JD Vance and Tim Walz’s poll numbers compare to other recent running mates.

Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter tonight, where we will be recapping and analyzing the Vance-Walz debate.

The 90-minute showdown, hosted by CBS News, is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET. Follow along with all the action on our live blog.

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5 things to watch for at tonight’s VP debate

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are set to take the stage tonight in New York City for the first and only vice presidential debate five weeks out from Election Day.  

Five NBC News staffers weighed in on one big thing they will be watching for:

Garrett Haake: Will Vance land the attack lines Trump wants? 

Former President Donald Trump sees his running mate as an extension of his own messaging — as most nominees do — and he made it clear to me in a phone interview today that he expects to see Vance on the attack against Vice President Kamala Harris on his two favorite issues: immigration and inflation. 

I’m watching to see if Vance can do what Trump, so far, hasn’t been able to: send Harris’ numbers on the handling of those two issues back down, after they have steadily improved. Trump’s attacks, by now, can feel rote to voters who’ve heard him hit the same marks time and again. Can Vance — far less known than Trump — provide a new frame on those seminal issues? 

Henry J. Gomez: Do tempers flare?

The first (and really only) rule for participating in a vice presidential debate is to do no harm. That’s why candidates prepare lines meant to knock rivals off guard and force a harmful mistake — and why they work hard with their handlers to anticipate and defuse whatever bombs might be lobbed in their direction.

Walz has the longer debate record, but Minnesota is something of a backwater on the national political scene. Vance is the less experienced debater, but for months, his team has been putting him in front of tough TV news interviewers to work out any bugs.

Peter Nicholas: Are we going to see more of Walz’s regular guy persona? 

Remember when Walz became Harris’ running mate and seemed to electrify the race with his regular guy, high school football coach, plainspoken truth-teller persona?

He seemed like one of the Harris campaign’s best assets. At the debate tonight, look to see if Walz reminds voters of why he seemed so appealing earlier in the summer and if he leaves them wanting more.

Emma Barnett: The memefication of the debate

I’m watching for how quickly memes come out of this debate — Gen Z seems to be obsessed with Walz, and there have been less-friendly memes about Vance. Whether Gen Z starts pumping out memes could be a quick indication about how — or if — they’re viewing the debate. 

Raquel Coronell Uribe: Will Vance and Walz shake hands?

President Joe Biden and Trump did not shake hands during their fated debate in June. As the new Democratic nominee, Harris broke stride with Biden during the September debate by making a beeline across the stage to Trump, whom she had never met before, and initiating a handshake with him.

Will Vance and Walz, who also will be meeting in person for the first time, follow suit?

How Vance and Walz’s poll numbers stack up to past VP nominees

By Steve Kornacki

Heading into tonight’s vice presidential debate, JD Vance has an image problem. In our latest NBC News poll, just 32% of voters have a positive opinion of him, compared to 45% who view him negatively. That’s a net-favorable rating of minus 13 points — one the worst recorded by a VP nominee in NBC News polling at similar points in the election cycle going all the way back to 1988.

By contrast, Tim Walz enjoys a slightly net-positive rating, which puts him smack in the middle range of recent VP candidates:

Only two VP nominees in the last 10 elections were less popular than Vance is now.

James Stockdale, who served as independent Ross Perot’s running mate in 1992, was a genuine American hero. But his story was unknown to much of the public, which didn’t take well to his decidedly unpolished debate performance. (Respondents in all of these NBC polls were offered “neutral” as an option, which many opted for in Stockdale’s case.)

And then-Vice President Dan Quayle, also in 1992, was paying a profound price for four years of near-constant mockery across pop culture, which began the moment George H.W. Bush chose him as his running mate in 1988. Quayle’s image was so battered, in fact, that some of Bush’s brain trust schemed to get him removed from the ticket that year.

With tens of millions expected to watch tonight’s debate, Vance does have an opportunity to improve his standing — just as a shaky performance by Walz could erase the advantage he now enjoys over Vance. But if Vance’s image problem persists, or even worsens, the question will become whether his candidacy could cost the GOP ticket votes.

The standard view is that voters’ opinions of the presidential nominees end up overriding any strong feelings — positive or negative — they may hold about the VP choices. Buttressing this is the example of 1988. As you can see, Democratic VP candidate Lloyd Bentsen enjoyed a 30-point net positive rating, while Quayle was 5 points underwater — a gap of 35 points. And yet, the Bush-Quayle Republican ticket trounced the Michael Dukakis-Bentsen Democratic ticket.

But with swing state polling so tight this election, a small shift could still tip the balance. The fear for the GOP involves a type of persuadable voter who doesn’t care for Harris and the Democrats but who is also skittish about Trump and in need of reassurance. Will Vance end up merely reinforcing this voter’s reluctance?

After Iran’s attack on Israel, the Biden White House is desperately trying to avert a wider war in the Mideast

By Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams

The Biden administration’s monthslong effort to avert a full-blown war between Israel and Iran is now being put to its most difficult test yet after Tehran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

The administration has worked around the clock for the past year trying to avoid a direct clash between its ally Israel and Iran. But now, administration officials are facing a potential worst-case scenario, as Iran’s attack will inevitably trigger a retaliation by the Israeli military. Such a chain reaction could possibly pull in the United States, as it helps to defend Israel, and other countries in the region.

The last time Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel — six months ago, in a retaliatory attack after Israel bombed a diplomatic compound in Syria — only a handful of the 300 projectiles struck Israel, and Washington managed to persuade Israel to hold back from a major retaliation. 

This time, regardless of whether the Iranian attack is effective, Israel will be eager to strike back, former U.S. and Israeli officials said.

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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