Less than a third of the campaign gone: season over? Some would have you believe so, on the back of Liverpool going eight points clear at the top of the Premier League and Manchester City managing to make it five straight defeats, for the first time in Pep Guardiola’s career, after a home thrashing by Tottenham.
Arne Slot’s seamless integration as Reds head coach has surprised many, with just one defeat in all competitions since he took over from Jurgen Klopp and 16 wins from 18 games. The contrasting form guide of both teams at the top means Liverpool look uncatchable to some – but with so many matches to play there’s still plenty of scope for them to have their own bad spell.
More poignantly perhaps, Liverpool face Manchester City in their very next league game; City can change the narrative considerably if they win that match of course, while the Reds going 11 clear of their biggest rivals with a win themselves will only add to the feeling the trophy will be heading back to Merseyside.
There are other factors at play: Arsenal, Chelsea and Brighton are only a point behind Manchester City at this stage, whatever fans’ and pundits’ feelings about their respective capacities to challenge this year. And the fixture list might prove trickier for Liverpool in the second half of the campaign, given their only away match against a top-half side so far has been at Arsenal. Visits to to Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Man City come over winter; Aston Villa, Chelsea and Brighton will be places to go in spring.
Yet Premier League history is on the side of the Reds and that will be even more so if they emerge victorious next weekend – after, of course, they play Real Madrid.
Some of the numbers around Liverpool’s lead at the top are already well documented: only Man City (2017/18) and Liverpool (19/20) have had an eight-point lead by this point in a campaign and both won the title, as did the only team with more of a gap, Man United (93/94, nine points). Similarly, 31 points from 12 games has only been achieved or bettered by a handful of sides, 10 times in three decades or so, with eight of the ten winning the league in the end. And if it’s a home win at Anfield next weekend, only three times in Premier League history has a team with an 11-point lead at any stage of the season not won the title: Newcastle falling to United in 95/96 from 12 points ahead, United clawing back the same ground on Norwich in 92/93 and Arsenal overhauling Man United’s 13-point lead in 97/98. Of course, it may not be a lead of 11, just a gap to City of that amount, but the point remains.
Clearly, with the very elite end of the game being somewhat different now to the mid-to-late 90s, it feels a stretch to label those latter numbers relevant.
The average points tally for the league winners from ‘93 to ‘99 was 82.7.
The champions’ average across to 2017 to 2024 has been 93.6.
It is a world away, in terms of consistency and relentlessness – the kind that Liverpool are showing under Slot, for example. And yet, that is in terms of results, not necessarily performances, when it comes to the Reds this season. The most recent victory was a prime example: on the road, the team have not performed anywhere near what they are capable of on a regular basis.
Against Arsenal they were far from great, but avoided defeat, while games at Wolves, the opening day at Ipswich and last time out at Saints, Liverpool played somewhere between average and poorly, but won. They had the individual quality, the moments or the sustained pressure to score and take the points, where City – or Arsenal or Chelsea – have on too many occasions not.
At some stage a natural drop-off is likely to occur for Liverpool. They are currently on course for a 98-point season. It’s achievable – they were there or thereabouts under Klopp more than once – but still, the probability is further points are dropped. In terms of the title race, the questions are how many and which of the other contenders can stop dropping them… which is why this might already just be down to Man City’s own form.
The reason for that is they have shown so many times they are capable of going on a run of a dozen or 20 games unbeaten, winning most.
At the start of the season, the case was presented why Arsenal would find it so difficult to win the title this year. Truths from then still hold now: if around the 91-point mark is needed (maybe more this year, per Liverpool’s form) then there are going to be at a maximum around ten league matches per season in which a contender is allowed to drop points. Consider: 28 wins, six draws, four defeats – that’s 90 points. Fiddle around with losses and stalemates as you wish, but fail to win more than ten and your race is almost certainly run.
Arsenal are already on six non-wins. So too Chelsea. The season is only 12 games old. Can either team point to any evidence, this year or last, to suggest they can win 22 times from 26 matches? Improbable, to say the least.
But that’s where City – five non-wins – can flex their past muscles and show it is possible, for now. If they rediscover winning ways fast. Anything but victory next weekend at Anfield though, and it becomes increasingly tough for them too.
