TAIPEI — Most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade in the coming five years but do see Beijing as a serious threat to the democratic island, a poll by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed on Wednesday.
Over the past five years or so, China’s military has significantly ramped up its activities around Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory over the strong objections of the government in Taipei, and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
The survey of around 1,200 people conducted last month by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research showed 61% of people think it was “unlikely or very unlikely” that China would attack Taiwan in the coming five years.
“Most people do not think China’s territorial ambitions will manifest themselves in the form of attacking Taiwan,” said Christina Chen, an INDSR researcher.
Taiwan’s people are also concerned about other Chinese threats, including military drills and propaganda campaigns, she said.
“Most people see China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat,” Chen said.
The poll presents a contrast to a warning by the head of U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, who said last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
“That means Taiwanese people are aware of the threat but remain calm and rational with the expectations of an imminent war,” the INDSR said.
More than 67% of respondents to the poll said they would fight back if China attacked, but were split almost evenly on whether Taiwan’s armed forces were capable of defending the island, half expressing confidence and half no confidence.
Lee Kuan-chen, another INDSR researcher, said Taiwan’s military should continue to boost its defense capacity to build public trust.
The poll also showed a split in opinion on whether the United States would help defend Taiwan.
While some 74% believed the U.S. government was likely to “indirectly” help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies and weapons, only 52% thought the U.S. military would dispatch its armed forces to intervene, the poll showed.
Lee said Taiwan’s government should be more transparent about Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation.
“That way, people will not have expectations that are too high or too low on U.S. assistance,” Lee said.
U.S. President Joe Biden has upset the Chinese government with comments that appeared to suggest the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked, a deviation from a long-held U.S. position of “strategic ambiguity.”
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said on Saturday that it is “impossible” for the People’s Republic of China to become Taiwan’s motherland because Taiwan has older political roots.
Lai, who took office in May, is condemned by Beijing as a “separatist”. He rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying that the island is the Republic of China, which traces its origins back to the 1911 revolution that overthrew the last imperial dynasty.
The republican government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong’s communists who set up the People’s Republic of China, which continues to claim the island as its “sacred” territory.
Taiwan’s China policy making Mainland Affairs Council said it was an objective fact that since 1949 the People’s Republic of China had never ruled the island.
Speaking at a concert ahead of Taiwan’s national day celebrations on Oct. 10, Lai noted that the People’s Republic had celebrated its 75th anniversary on Oct. 1, and it would be the Republic of China’s 113th birthday on Thursday.
“On the contrary, the Republic of China may be the motherland of the people of the People’s Republic of China who are over 75 years old,” Lai added, to applause.
“One of the most important meanings of these celebrations is that we must remember that we are a sovereign and independent country,” he said.
In response, the Chinese government said Lai is escalating tensions with “sinister intentions,” saying that he continues to peddle a theory that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are two separate countries.
“Lai Ching-te’s Taiwan independence fallacy is just old wine in a new bottle, and again exposes his obstinate stance on Taiwan independence and his sinister intentions of escalating hostility and confrontation,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.
“The Taiwan Affairs Office’s remarks have made Taiwan’s people see clearly that the Chinese communists regard themselves as the sole legitimate government of China and simply do not allow any room for the survival of the Republic of China,” it said.
Lai, who is called a “separatist” by Beijing, is set to give a keynote speech in Taipei on Thursday.
