Hopes – on both sides – that there could have been some kind of decisive last-minute movement of voter preferences one way or the other appear to be unfounded.
Polls are closed across many of the East Coast battleground states, and votes are being tabulated at a rapid clip. An early picture of this historic presidential race is beginning to come into view.
While the final outcome is still in doubt, it appears increasingly likely that America is in for another nail-biter of an election.
In Georgia and North Carolina – states that Donald Trump all but has to win – the former president is doing even better in the traditional rural areas than he did in 2020. Kamala Harris is matching Joe Biden’s totals in the urban and suburban counties, but so far she has not made a marked improvement.
While these vote margins could shift, narrow Trump victories in Georgia and North Carolina would mean all eyes once again turn to the Democratic “Blue Wall” states along the Great Lakes. The scenario where Harris delivers a knock-out punch on election night would fail to materialise.
At that point, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania become her best – perhaps only – path to the White House. And in Pennsylvania, the final results might not be known for days.
We’ve also got another batch of exit poll data, shedding light on the divide between men and women in this election.
Not surprisingly, a majority of women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are giving their support to Donald Trump.
What is a bit surprising, at least according to these findings, is that the 54% of women voting for Harris doesn’t match the 57% that backed Joe Biden in 2020.
All that talk of a historic political divide between the two genders may have been premature.
Exit poll results often shift as the hours tick by and should be seen as general guide and not a detailed map, but if Democrats have lost ground with women voters compared to four years ago, it would be extremely concerning for the Harris camp.
One thing is clear at this point, however. Turnout in this election is once again approaching the highest level in modern American history. It may even eclipse the 65.9% mark set in 2020.
Both Trump and Harris have repeatedly said that the stakes in this election are high. The American public seems to have heeded that call.
This analysis will be updated as more results come in.
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