Nine points adrift of the league leaders, on a run of four matches without a win, Arsenal’s title challenge is unquestionably hanging by a thread. The first chunk of this campaign has passed with none of the calm assurance that defined the second half of last season, and Mikel Arteta requires an urgent upturn in his team’s results.
It is too early, though, to definitively say that Arsenal are no longer in the fight at the top of the table. In fact, there are numerous reasons to believe that they are now through the muddiest, clumpiest part of their campaign – and a genuine opportunity lies ahead over these next few months.
Why the optimism? Primarily because life is about to become significantly more straightforward. On paper at least. Arsenal’s fixture list becomes easier, their captain has returned to full fitness and the travel demands are about to be drastically reduced.
Rival fans will scoff at the suggestion that Arsenal have had a tough start to this campaign but it is demonstrably the case that their fixtures have been more difficult than those of Liverpool and Manchester City.
In their first 11 games, Arsenal met the other six teams who finished in the top seven last season. Not only that, they have faced five of them – Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, City, Newcastle United and Chelsea – away from home. Liverpool and City, by contrast, have faced only three of last season’s top seven.
Big-game results better this year
In those five away matches, Arsenal have taken eight points. In the same five games last season, they took five.
Opta rated Arsenal’s first 11 games this season as the fifth-most difficult set of early fixtures faced by any Premier League team.
City’s first 11 fixtures were rated as the third easiest, while Liverpool’s were the seventh easiest.
Arsenal now have a much more palatable run of games, starting with Saturday’s match at home to Nottingham Forest. Opta’s assessment of the next 11 league games is that Arsenal have the third-easiest run of any team.
It is also set to be more straightforward in terms of travel. Until late January, Arsenal’s fixtures take them outside of London just once – a trip to Brighton, which is hardly the most strenuous.
Over the next 11 games, Arsenal will have to travel a total of only 128 miles. In their first 11 games, they travelled 715 miles. Also, they will have only one European away game in this period – against Sporting Lisbon – compared to two trips to Italy (and a League Cup game at Preston) in the first part of the campaign.
Odegaard return a game-changer
The medium-term picture looks even more promising because of the return of Martin Odegaard. The captain, who is so fundamental to the style of play on and off the ball, made his first league appearance since August when he started at Stamford Bridge before the latest international break.
There is no doubt that injuries have been a major factor behind the disappointing start. At various points, they have been without Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Mikel Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber.
In total, Arsenal players have missed a cumulative 49 matches. In the first 11 games of last season, that figure stood at just 28.
“I am just praying that after the international break I have the team fully equipped physically, that they are available and they are fit,” Arteta said after the draw with Chelsea. “Because it has been an absolute nightmare for eight weeks.
“Issue after issue, not only the ones that are not able to play, but the ones that are able to play only for certain moments, only for certain days, not able to train. So, I’m just asking that, because the team, the desire that they have and how much we want it, there’s no question about that. So, it’s going to come, we just need that on our side to be able to be more consistent.”
The more worrying news is that White and Leandro Trossard have been added to the injury list since Chelsea. White has undergone a minor knee operation; Trossard limped off while in action for Belgium during the international break.
Those injuries might make Arteta feel he is yet to wake up from his “absolute nightmare”, but that could all change this weekend. If they look to the short and medium-term, Arsenal should find plenty of reasons to believe their dream of success is still alive.
