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Monday, October 21, 2024

Behind the Numbers: How NC State’s playmakers paced Pack in comeback win at Cal

By Noah Fleischman

For much of this season, NC State’s fan base has asked for its star-studded skill position group to make plays — or be put in the position to do that. And at Cal, with the Wolfpack’s winless ACC record, NC State did just that. 

The Pack spread the ball around through the air with eight different pass catchers recording at least one reception — five of them had at least four grabs. That led to success as NC State clawed its way back from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 24-23 on Saturday afternoon at California Memorial Stadium. 

“Are you a player or a playmaker? In these kinds of games, players have to make plays to win, man,” coach Dave Doeren said. “And you saw some of those things happen. … That’s what we’re hopeful for with some of these guys that we recruited, is that they can be explosive players. That was great to see.”

NC State leaned on its elite talent on the offense, including redshirt freshman running back Hollywood Smothers, sophomore wide receiver Kevin “KC” Concepcion and junior tight end Justin Joly to make plays.

And, well, they rose up to Doeren’s challenge that he quipped postgame. 

“Coach Doeren really held us to the standard: if you’re a playmaker, go out there and make plays … when given the opportunity,” Smothers said. “I feel like that’s what our playmakers were able to do today.”

The Wolfpack’s rushing attack struggled again, averaging 1.0 yards per attempt with just 29 total yards on the ground in the game, but its aerial attack was the key piece of NC State’s ability to come from behind to win at Cal. 

Freshman quarterback CJ Bailey was efficient as he found the Wolfpack’s skill players through the air, who did the rest in the 1-point win, with 25-of-36 passing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

“We’ve got playmakers all over the place,” Smothers said. “The running attack wasn’t able to hit how we wanted to, so we put the ball in the air. CJ has it all and he’s able to open up the passing game and get it to the right guy. We were able to just come through for him when he got us the ball.”

Here’s a look at how the Wolfpack’s offense used its elite talent to surge past the Bears to claim NC State’s first ACC win of the 2024 campaign. 

CJ Bailey’s uber-efficient passing attack

Bailey, who has appeared to grow each week as a starter, took another step forward at Cal. While he did not turn the ball over for just the second time in his five meaningful appearances this fall, Bailey also excelled in being an efficient passer.

The freshman signal-caller was able to post an elite 90.7 pass grade when kept clean, according to Pro Football Focus. Bailey was 23-of-31 on those 33 dropbacks for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns. The more impressive piece of Bailey’s ability to be accurate on those throws was that his average pass attempt went for 9.3 yards when kept clean as he continued to push the ball downfield. 

Bailey was 4-of-6 passing on throws 20 or more yards down the field for 113 yards in the game, while he diced up the Cal defense on short throws, going 15-of-16 for 153 yards and two scores on passes within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. 

The Miami, Fla., native was crucial in big situations as well. He was 8-of-10 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown on third downs, helping the Pack to convert 8-of-17 in those scenarios. Bailey was also clutch in the fourth quarter as he was 9-of-13 passing for 143 yards and 2 TDs to pace the comeback win. 

Bailey finished the game with four big-time throws, according to PFF, which are “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” That matched his season total of those passes going into NC State’s road trip to Cal. 

Hollywood Smothers continues to shine as a receiving back

A week after Smothers dazzled with a 72-yard reception against Syracuse, which featured at least four missed tackles forced on the screen, the Oklahoma transfer took his game to another level at Cal. 

Smothers paced NC State’s pass catchers with 6 receptions, which he turned into 87 yards and a touchdown — the would-be game-winning score. The tailback logged the Wolfpack’s longest play of the game, a 41-yard touchdown grab that he made two defenders miss on his way to the end zone. 

The Charlotte, N.C., native made three tacklers miss as a receiver in the game, which was a team-high after the Pack only logged four total in the game. Smothers did it while he played a career-best 49 snaps for the Wolfpack, emerging as NC State’s top running back option. 

While he impressed as a receiver, Smothers was the only running back to finish with more than 10 yards on the ground for the Pack. He logged 7 carries for 25 yards, which featured a team-best 13 yards after contact. 

Smothers racked up 112 yards of total offense after he accounted for 113 yards a week prior in the loss to the Orange. He is the first NC State player this season to have back-to-back 100-yard efforts in total offense this fall. 

Behind the Numbers: How NC State’s playmakers paced Pack in comeback win at Cal
National Coatings

NC State’s pass catchers made plays

As alluded to above, the Wolfpack has an elite crop of pass catchers on the roster, they just needed a chance to make consistent plays downfield. That came true at Cal as Bailey pushed the ball downfield with authority and the receivers caught a season-high five contested passes.

The Pack had eight different players record at least 1 reception, while five had 4 or more catches in the game. Joly led the way with 4 receptions for 95 yards, which included 2 explosive receptions of 29 and 31 yards, respectively. 

Joly, a UConn transfer, added 2 more contested catches to his resume at Cal. He is now the nation’s top tight end in terms of contested catch rate with an 85.7 percent mark, according to PFF. Joly is third overall in total contested catches this fall with 7. 

So what’s his secret to hauling in the tough passes with a defender all over him? Joly can explain. 

“If you want the ball, just catch it,” Joly said going into the Cal game. “If it’s in the air, and you want the ball more, go catch it. That’s it.”

Easy enough. Well, it seems that way since he wasn’t the only Pack pass catcher to get involved in making contested grabs. 

Concepcion logged a contested catch on a 32-yard gain downfield as he out-jumped the Cal corner on him, while redshirt junior Dacari Collins and junior Wesley Grimes each logged one as well. 

Concepcion, the ACC’s reigning Rookie of the Year, logged 4 catches for 53 yards, while he had a pass completion for 28 yards and a 2-yard touchdown carry in his signature do-it-all fashion. 

The Wolfpack offense as a whole was a balanced air attack that also featured redshirt freshman Noah Rogers (4 receptions for 25 yards) and freshman Terrell Anderson (1 catch for 18 yards).

As Bailey grows more confident within NC State’s offense, the Pack’s playmakers have been the ultimate beneficiary. That, in the long run, has provided a glimpse into what this offense can become in the future.

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