Tuesday night, the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year came out. That means there’s a baseline to project the 12-team bracket, and CBS Sports updated its projections for the CFP and the full bowl slate after Week 10.
It’s worth noting there’s still plenty of football left, meaning the predictions might not look exactly like the first rankings and projected 12-team bracket. For example, Oregon was the No. 1 team in the initial rankings, but CBS Sports projects Ohio State to win the Big Ten and knock the Ducks into a first-round game.
Throughout the season, the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank the Top 25 teams as it’s done since its inception in 2014. The difference, though, is those rankings will become seedings at the end of the year to get the 12-team bracket. The five highest-ranked conference champions make the field – the four highest-ranked get first-round byes – and the next seven highest-ranked teams round things out.
That’s why the seedings will look different from the rankings. Ohio State was a good example in the first CFP rankings reveal. The Buckeyes were the No. 2-ranked team, but because Oregon was the projected Big Ten champion, Ohio State dropped to the No. 5 seed.
Some key matchups await in November and the CFP picture is sure to keep changing. Here’s where CBS Sports’ projections stand after Week 10.
1. Georgia
Georgia came in as the No. 3 team in the first CFP rankings, but CBS Sports projects the Bulldogs to win the SEC and become the No. 1 seed in the bracket. Kirby Smart’s group has been rolling since a loss to Alabama, adding to the intrigue around a matchup against Ole Miss this week that could have Playoff implications.
Georgia has won its last three games even though Carson Beck has struggled, throwing three interceptions in back-to-back weeks. Still, the vaunted defense has been impressive and has the Bulldogs right in the thick of the CFP race heading into Week 11.
2. Ohio State
Even with a loss to Oregon last month, Ohio State is squarely in the mix in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes got a crucial win over Penn State on the road in Week 10, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
The schedule will be important for the Buckeyes as they look to get back to the Big Ten Championship. They will take on undefeated Indiana – which is tied with Oregon atop the standings – Nov. 23 in a game that could impact Ohio State’s chances of making it to Indianapolis.
3. Miami
With a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, Miami enters Week 11 undefeated. The Hurricanes have been nothing short of dominant in the ACC and sit tied atop the conference standings with sights set on a CFP berth.
Cam Ward settled into Shannon Dawson’s system well, ranking third in the nation with 349.6 passing yards per game and an FBS-leading 29 passing touchdowns. Miami came in as the projected ACC champion in CBS Sports’ projections with Georgia Tech looming this week.
4. Iowa State
Iowa State suffered its first loss of the season last week, adding to the chaos in the Big 12. But CBS Sports projects the Cyclones to emerge from the rest of the group as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion to lock up the final bye.
Iowa State came in at No. 17 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, and No. 9 BYU was the only other Big 12 team in the Top 25. If things stay on the current path, the two teams would meet in the Big 12 Championship with a first-round bye on the line.
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Oregon
As the fifth-highest ranked conference champion in CBS Sports’ projection, Boise State would be the No. 12 seed in the bracket. The Broncos are on track to be the Group of 5 representative in the field with an offense led by Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty at running back.
As the 12-seed, Boise State would travel to Oregon in CBS Sports’ projections if the Ducks lose the Big Ten title game. The storylines would be aplenty for that game considering the two teams met earlier this year – and it came down to a last-second field goal.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Penn State
With two losses, Alabama presented an interesting case for the CFP committee ahead of the first rankings reveal. But the Crimson Tide are still in the picture – though a game against LSU this week could effectively serve as an elimination contest – and came in as the No. 9 seed in CBS Sports’ predictions.
Penn State, meanwhile, generated some conversation for its ranking after last week’s loss to Ohio State. It was the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the year to this point, and they’ll continue to hover around the CFP picture if they bounce back.
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Texas
Despite a scare against Kentucky last week, Tennessee is still lurking in the College Football Playoff conversation as the No. 7-ranked team and No. 8 seed in the projected bracket. The Volunteers are 7-1 heading into a Week 11 matchup against Mississippi State and, despite a loss to Arkansas, still snuck into the projected 12-team field.
In CBS Sports’ projection, the Volunteers would take on No. 6 seed Texas in an all-SEC first-round game in Austin. The Longhorns gutted out a victory over Vanderbilt last week, but all eyes will be on the season finale against Texas A&M from a CFP perspective.
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU
As an independent, Notre Dame cannot get a first-round bye in the 12-team CFP. The Fighting Irish’s best hope would be to host a first-round game, but a loss to Northern Illinois could have a long-term impact on those chances even despite some strong showings since.
BYU, meanwhile, is looking to capitalize on a wide-open Big 12 – and, in the eyes of some, garner more respect. The Cougars’ offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 35.1 points, and the schedule looks favorable for a run to the conference championship game.
Remaining Postseason Bowl Projections
Jan. 4
Bahamas Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Western Michigan
Jan 3.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Clemson vs. Minnesota
First Responder Bowl: Navy vs. Georgia Southern
Jan. 2
Gator Bowl:Â Louisville vs. Ole Miss
Dec. 31
Texas Bowl: TCU vs. LSU
Citrus Bowl: Indiana vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl:Â Duke vs. Washington
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Dec. 30
Music City Bowl: Illinois vs. Arkansas
Dec. 28
Independence Bowl: Army vs. Oregon State
Alamo Bowl: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Memphis
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State vs. Bowling Green
Pop-Tarts Bowl:Â SMU vs. Texas Tech
New Mexico Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin
Fenway Bowl: North Carolina vs. USF
Dec. 27
Las Vegas Bowl: South Carolina vs. Colorado
Holiday Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Liberty Bowl:Â Baylor vs. Vanderbilt
Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Armed Forces Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Charlotte
Dec. 26
68 Ventures Bowl: Buffalo vs. Arkansas State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl:Â West Virginia vs. Michigan
Detroit Bowl: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Dec. 24
Hawaii Bowl: Marshall vs. Sam Houston State
Dec. 23
Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Colorado State
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Liberty vs. Tulane
Dec. 20
Gasparilla Bowl:Â Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech
Cure Bowl: East Carolina vs. UCF
Dec. 19
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana
Dec. 18
Los Angeles Bowl: UNLV vs. USC
Boca Raton Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. UConn
Dec. 17
Frisco Bowl:Â Northern Illinois vs. Texas State
Dec. 14
Camellia Bowl: Toledo vs. James Madison
