The latest NBC News poll contains this good news for Democrats: They’ve essentially caught up to Republicans on enthusiasm about the upcoming election — after trailing on this measure while President Joe Biden was in the race.
The challenge for Democrats, however, is that key parts of their base are less fired up about the election than they were in previous cycles, as the party tries to rev up turnout for a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Overall, the poll finds 74% of registered voters expressing high interest in the election, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.
That’s the lowest share expressing high interest for all other presidential cycles the poll has tested since 2004 at this same point in time — with the exception of 2016.
By party, 79% of Republicans have high interest, compared with 77% of Democrats. That 2-point deficit for Democrats is an improvement for the party from July’s NBC News poll, when Biden was still in the race. Then, the deficit was 5 points, 76% to 71%.
Still, key parts of the Democratic base — including Black voters and young voters — are showing lower levels of high interest in the upcoming election than in any of the past five presidential cycles going back to 2004.
Between 80% and 90% of Black voters said they had high interest in the upcoming election at this point in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020. In 2016, that number stood at 65%.
Now? It’s 64%.
Similarly, the share of voters ages 18 to 34 with high interest was 60% or higher in every recent presidential cycle — with the exception of 2016, when it was at 54%.
Now? It’s 49%.
