The College Football Playoff race is beginning to take shape after Week 9’s action. Despite there not being many upsets in and around the CFP bubble, there were still several changes made within the playoff contenders heading into Week 10.
Following another exciting week in college football, ESPN’s Heather Dinich predicted how the selection committee will rank those 12 contenders after another interesting week across the nation.
Notably, Dinich’s list is a prediction of how the selection committee will rank these teams. When the final seedings are released, they will be determined by seeing the top four conference champions getting a first round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champions will get an auto-bid but no first-round bye. The seven at-large bids will then be determined by the rankings.
The Ducks have looked every bit of the part since becoming the nation’s new No. 1 after defeating Ohio State at home in Week 7. Outscoring Purdue and a ranked Illinois team 73-9 in consecutive weeks, the hardest stretch of Oregon’s regular season appears to be past them.
Oregon travels to Michigan in Week 10, but is unlikely not play another ranked team during the regular season. If they run the table during the regular season as expected, they’ll cruise into the Big Ten Championship game and likely won’t drop from the top spot unless the committee deems Georgia‘s ranked victories as more impressive than the Ducks. Either way, it appears a first-round bye is Oregon’s to lose at this point in the season.
Georgia was idle on Saturday, but remains at No. 2 thanks to the fact that it has two of the best wins in the country — a neutral site win over Clemson and a true road game against a then-top-ranked Texas team. Still, Dinich believes it’s going to be tough to sell a one-loss Georgia team over an undefeated Oregon to the playoff committee.
Unlike the Ducks, Georgia still has games on its schedule that could impress the committee if they pull out the win. Namely, they host Tennessee on Nov. 16, and would be the only team in the top 12 to have three wins over potential College Football Playoff teams if they were to win that late season matchup.
Wisconsin gave Penn State a good scare just in time for Halloween. Winning 28-13, the Nittany Lions managed to separate themselves with two unsanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter and remain undefeated on the year.
This sets up a headlining Week 10 matchup between Penn State and the Ohio State Buckeyes in Happy Valley. While the Buckeyes have Indiana to look forward to before the end of the regular season, this if Penn State’s last major test before the postseason. To Dinich, a victory here would put the Nittany Lions at least in strong position to earn at least an at-large bid into the final field of 12 without having to win the Big Ten Championship game.
Ohio State is looking for its signature win of the season, and luckily for them No. 3 Penn State is coming to Columbus on Saturday in a game that will have major implications on the both the Big Ten and College Football Playoff races.
After being tested by Nebraska at home over the weekend, the Buckeyes are needing a big-time performance to impress the committee. With one conference loss already, they can’t move ahead of Oregon, Penn State or Indiana without one or two of them stumbling before the end of the regular season. That’s why the Penn State game is the perfect opportunity to move back into the Big Ten title picture in hopes of earning the conference’s automatic bid into the CFP.
Texas defeated a ranked Vanderbilt team on the road, but does not move ahead of the one-loss Buckeyes who defeated unranked Nebraska at home over the weekend.
Dinich suggests this may be because committee takes into account each team’s entire body of work. At this point in the season, Ohio State’s road loss to No. 1 Oregon by one point is more appealing to the voters than Texas losing to No. 2 Georgia at home by two scores. Still, the SEC Championship is in play for the Longhorns with four games left on the schedule.
Texas A&M may have had the most impressive victory of Week 9, which is why they’ve gone from not making this list after Week 8, to being one of the top six teams in the CFP race seven days later.
Trailing two scores in the second half, Marcel Reed took over for Conner Weigman under center — a game-changing decision for head coach Mike Elko. He went on to score three second-half touchdowns and led the Aggies to a 38-23 comeback win against an LSU team that many considered one of the hottest in the country coming in. Texas A&M sits alone atop the SEC standings at 5-0 in conference play. A season-finale matchup at home against Texas may decide whether or not the Aggies find their way to Atlanta at the end of the day.
Miami’s offense continues to be one of the most exciting in the country, but the only thing holding them back isn’t their defense — it’s the fact that they aren’t going to play a ranked team until the ACC Championship game in December, assuming they win out.
They’re ranked third in offensive efficency nationally, having scored at least 50 points in half of their games this season. However, Dinich suspects that the CFP rankings and AP Poll may not align on teams like Miami and Indiana, who are undefeated with no wins over similar opponents. It will be interesting to see how that pans out moving forward.
A College Football Playoff contender that does have a win over a ranked opponent — BYU improved to 8-0 on the season after its 37-24 win over UCF on Saturday. BYU’s offense has now scored in 30 or more points seven of its first eight games this season, and is rolling heading into the final four-game stretch of the regular season.
Iowa State is hot on BYU’s trail, though. Also undefeated at 7-0, and 4-0 in conference play, BYU’s win over a ranked Kansas State squad earlier this season is something Iowa State doesn’t have for themselves. The Cyclones won’t play the Wildcats until the regular season finale, which will likely decide who will battle BYU for the conference championship and auto-bid into the CFP.
Just like Miami, the only thing Indiana suffers from is not having a win over a ranked opponent heading into Week 10. Luckily for the Hoosiers, their opportunity is coming up quickly as they’re set to travel to Ohio State on Nov. 23 in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup to the Big Ten and College Footall Playoff races.
Saturday was essentially a massive pep rally for first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. Not only was his program playing host to ESPN’s College GameDay, but his group delivered on the field, too. Never trailing Washington, they took down the reigning national finalists 31-17 with their backup quarterback. They haven’t trailed for a single moment this season.
Boise State continues to lead the way for Group of Five programs racing to be a part of the College Football Playoff. Given that their only loss to the season came at the hands of top-ranked Oregon thanks to a last-second field goal — to Dinich, that’s the best loss in the country this season. The committee is also likely to take this into account.
Boise State now has a 44% chance to finsh the season undefeated heading into a potential CFP berth. Those are the best odds in the country, and if that happens it will all but lock up the G5 selection for this year. After Navy lost to Notre Dame on Saturday, it only further solidifies the Broncos’ arguement.
Clemson was off during Week 9, but the Tigers are still one of the hottest teams in the country having rattled off six-straight wins after losing the season opener to Georgia. The best win for Clemson at the moment, however, is against a four-loss Virginia team.
The positive news, Clemson’s next three matchups are against Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pitt — all of which have records at or above .500. However, if the Tigers were to lose one of those three matchups, it may be difficult for the committee to argue in favor of Clemson over other two-loss teams.
Like Georgia and Clemson, Tennessee was on its bye this past week following its massive win 24-17 win over Alabama in Week 8. That win is especially important, because even if the Vols lose to Georgia on Nov. 16, Tennessee still has a case to make the CFP with an at-large bid because the Tide, Bulldogs and Vols would have all beaten one another.
Tennessee did have issues with penalties and other self-inflicted setbacks against the Crimson Tide, which will need to be cleaned up if they want to pull off the upset at Georgia next month — a tall task for any team in the country.
