Football 301 Playbook: This is the Caleb Williams we’ve been waiting for

In a loaded NFC North division featuring heavyweight players, units and teams, the Chicago Bears have been keeping up with the class of their conference. Their defense is sound, talented at all three levels and the Bears make it a slog for any offense not at the top of their game. They feature a weapon at punter (no, seriously) in rookie Tory Taylor, who has been worthy of weekly highlight videos from the Bears’ social media team.

Defense and special teams? Sounds like typical Chicago Bears. But, there’s something different about these Bears. The offense, boosted by going against a drop in defensive quality after playing the veteran-laden Titans and a feisty and speedy Texans unit in the first two weeks, has started to strip away fat that seemed to have too much going on. As the offense has started to crystalize, their No. 1 draft pick, and potential franchise savior, has started to turn his advanced process into tangible results. And that process and those results are as exciting as any player in the NFL, rookie or otherwise.

Caleb Williams drew lofty comparisons as a prospect, from Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes to my own personal high-end projection of Drew Brees. His combination of arm talent and creation was mouthwatering for talent evaluators who are desperate for high-end play at the position. After a shaky first two weeks of the season alongside a strong stretch of play by fellow rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the whispers of “did the Bears take the wrong guy again?” started turning into louder conversations and takes for talking heads. But even when weathering the storm of a shaky offense that had skill position injuries, too much going on and an offensive line working through communication issues, Williams has been a steady and calming presence whose own process has set this offense — and team — up to succeed.

And now the results are showing.

Caleb Williams’ intelligence and polish are just as important as his arm talent

First, let’s get to the obvious: Williams’ arm talent pops off the screen. Whether it’s throwing touch passes to Keenan Allen in the end zone or going toe-to-toe with Matthew Stafford on another windy day in Chicago, Williams can put the RPMs on the ball and change his arm angle and touch to whatever he desires.

It’s not just that arm talent that leads to the excitement about what he can become. Williams’ polish at the position is also advanced. He is methodical and a clean operator. The extended plays and loop-the-loops that he performs on defenders will be clipped for highlights and have me comparing him to the Brazilian soccer legend Garrincha. And that ability to create out of structure is so important to have at quarterback in the modern NFL.

But while it’s important, modern QB play requires consistent operation when things do go as scripted. And Williams’ intelligence, polish and capability of operating within the confines of the offense, and to set up what those confines are on a given play, is what makes his long-term outlook so exciting.

First, there’s Williams’ mechanics. I’ll use the word “clean” again because that’s precisely what his mechanics are. His footwork doesn’t feature wasted movement. The ball constantly comes out on time, even when he’s attacking downfield. Hell, even his handoffs are teach tape.

Williams turns into a machine when he’s attacking underneath, a gatling gun firing line drives that get pinned on the chest of his pass catchers. It particularly shows up in the red zone and on third down, when spaces get tighter, and timing and decision-making become even more paramount to success.

Bears trust Williams, and he’s repaid it

While the zip that Williams can put on the ball and his accuracy shine on straight dropback plays and in quick game, his decision-making and feel for when to push the envelope shows up especially when the Bears align in empty formations, with no other players in the backfield and only five pass protectors making timely decisions key to a successful play.

Since Week 2, Williams is one of 13 NFL QBs to have 20 or more dropbacks from empty formations. He ranks fourth in dropback success rate among those 13 QBs, behind only Joe Burrow, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. And he’s succeeding by attacking the entire field, not just with quick underneath throws or on cheap screen passes; his average air yards on those pass attempts ranks third at 9.5 yards among the same group of 13 qualifying QBs.

The Bears have even gone entire drives with Williams operating out of empty formations, with some plays allowing Williams to handle the final play call (more on that in a second). Even when teams try to run common coverages to throw a wrench into those spread formation plans, like the Jaguars in the clip below dropping eight defenders into coverage to flood the throwing lanes, Williams will calmly hang in the pocket and progress to the intermediate option on high-low concepts.

Williams’ full control of the Bears’ offense has been apparent early on, even when it was floundering on national TV against the Texans’ tenacious pass rush. There was Williams, altering protections and communicating plays like a player with 100 NFL games under his belt.

Williams is changing who “mike” point is on this play to No. 29 of the Texans. He is telling the offensive linemen that they are responsible for the four-man defensive line and now No. 29 with their protection responsibilities, with the RB and TE operating from there.

Even Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair recognized that Williams figured out the blitz look.

Williams’ control shows up in the Bears’ extensive use of no-huddle. No-huddle doesn’t always mean warp speed to snap the ball as quickly as possible. It can also be offenses getting to the line of scrimmage, give a dummy cadence, and then check into a play that the group feels best suits the situation. The Bears use no-huddle at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per TruMedia, and it’s not because they’ve been trailing mightily in games. They’ll go at least a drive or two a game without huddling and letting Williams determine the best play to get to.

Here he is against the Texans giving the Bears’ offensive line the protection call and the pass catchers the route concept (“Twig” being a code word for a common “Stick” concept).

Williams had a no-huddle sequence against the Panthers that featured nothing but plays out of empty (a double whammy of pre-and-post snap operation).

And he had a similar no-huddle sequence against the Jaguars where he was calling plays as he saw fit. There are even instances of Williams solving a blitz issue by signaling a quick out route and bypassing the problem altogether.

I have to emphasize how impressive this is, for an NFL coaching staff to not only give its rookie QB some leeway to change plays, but full control to outright adjust the offensive line’s protection calls and essentially draw plays in the dirt using hand signals and code words. And he’s getting these calls and adjustments consistently correct, too. Showing off the homework and preparation Williams has already put in early in his career.

Williams’ advanced operation shows up post-snap, too. On DJ Moore’s touchdown against the Panthers, Williams moves a deep safety with his eyes before snapping back and delivering a great throw to Moore.

You can see the helmet at the bottom of the screen starting to turn and sprint as Williams’ eyes glance over to the bubble and pump concept. He got the safety to take the bait before he made the throw.

Most quarterbacks would be simply checking it down or throwing the ball away if this concept got muddy. Williams was already keyed on the next-level option.

This is the Caleb Williams the Bears drafted No. 1 overall

This combination of smarts, physical talent and the Bears’ offensive staff’s trust in Williams is starting to pay dividends, with a little boost coming from an easier slate of defenses. Since Week 3, Williams is fifth in EPA per dropback and sixth in dropback success rate among qualifying NFL QBs, sitting up with the familiar names like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, as well as fellow rookie standout Jayden Daniels.

(More on Daniels and the Commanders’ offense in the weeks to come. They play the Bears this weekend and also run no-huddle at the highest rate in the NFL, so it should be a fun match of styles. Especially if Daniels plays with his rib injury.)

Williams and the Bears’ offense should be able to keep trending upward post-bye, with a continued slate of toothless defenses in the upcoming weeks before entering the NFC North battle royale in November. All of the Bears’ NFC North games are in the last eight weeks, starting with the Packers at home on Nov. 17.

Despite some shaky box scores and interceptions early on where he was trying a bit too much to see what he can get away with, Williams has been simply stellar with his adjustment to the NFL. He’s already showing off the capabilities of handling an entire offense, more than some handsomely paid quarterbacks have ever been asked to handle, and doing it in high-pressure situations in his first month as a professional. Hell, his first week as a professional.

I’m comfortable in saying that this is the best Bears quarterback that I can remember. It’s a low bar, but I’m saying this as a fact. And I don’t mean what Williams can potentially be; I mean what he is right now.

This is the total package of accuracy, arm talent, creation, toughness and intelligence. This is a franchise quarterback.