Iran’s ability to supply ballistic missiles to Russia has been hit by Saturday’s Israeli strikes on weapons facilities across the Islamic Republic.
While the attack, involving more than 100 aircraft, targeted Iran’s ability to strike Israel, it could also have serious repercussions for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Satellite images showed some sites hit by Israel housed “planetary mixers”, which are used to make solid fuel for ballistic missiles.
As a result, if Iran needs its own supply of missiles for fresh attacks on Israel, experts say it could now struggle to provide more projectiles to Russia due to a lack of fuel.
“The destruction of Iranian solid-fuel planetary mixers could influence any Iranian decision to export solid-fuelled short-range ballistic missiles to Russia if these missiles are regarded as being difficult to replace,” said Dr Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at Rusi, the defence think tank.
The Israeli attack also appeared to have hit a ballistic missile site in Parchin, northern Iran, where Tehran is suspected to have carried out tests of high explosives that could be used in a nuclear weapon.
Dr Kaushal said that damage inflicted on sites such as Parchin could lead to Iran halting exports of ballistic missiles if it needed them itself.
Moscow could also suffer a financial hit after an S-300 Russian-made air-defence system was destroyed in the Israeli attack, damaging the reputation of Russia’s arms industry.
“The spectacle of Russian systems failing will, in tandem with events in Ukraine, do their arms industry’s reputation no good, with potential financial ramifications,” Dr Kaushal said.
Israel also attacked Iranian drone factories, but Dr Kaushal said the effects of this on Russia would be limited as it is able to produce the Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone itself.
“Since Russia is now producing the Shahed-136 at scale, I doubt there will be a massive impact on operations.”
Since acquiring the Shahed from Iran in 2022, Russia is estimated to have launched more than 8,000 of the drones at targets in Ukraine.
Russia could also attempt to gain “leverage” over Iran by providing it with drones or replacement missile fuels for a potential strike on Israel.
“As its treaty with North Korea shows, Russia no longer worries about being seen as a proliferator of export-controlled goods so it might see its leverage in the Russo-Iranian relationship grow as a consequence of Iran’s travails,” Dr Kaushal said.
Iran is one of Russia’s key military backers and has transferred hundreds of drones to Putin’s regime for use in Ukraine since August 2022.
The Islamic Republic was left reeling on Saturday after dozens of Israeli aircraft, including F-35 stealth jets, refuellers and drones, attacked sites across the country.
Israel was responding after the Islamic Republic launched some 200 projectiles at the Jewish state on Oct 1.
In September, the UK and the US announced new measures against Iran after it emerged the country was sending short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow.
