The biggest game of the regular season to date kicks off this afternoon when two-time reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City visits the San Francisco 49ers — the team it beat in Super Bowl 58.
Kansas City (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) rolled into its off week despite suffering injury after injury to some of its top players. QB Patrick Mahomes is still there, though, so of course, KC is among the toughest teams to beat.
San Francisco (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has also been dealing with injuries to key players, but hasn’t navigated them well. RB Christian McCaffrey still hasn’t played and likely will not play against Kansas City.
Still, the 49ers are the home team so they get the benefit of the doubt from the best sports betting apps, which list San Francisco as small favorites. Here are our Kansas City vs. 49ers predictions and best bets for NFL Week 7.
Kansas City vs. 49ers Prediction
- Kansas City +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Under 47.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 3.5 receptions (-163 at Caesars)
In the ever-changing world of the NFL, two teams in different conferences rarely meet as often as these teams have with the same coaching staff. That’s what we have this afternoon when Kansas City visits San Francisco.
With Andy Reid coaching KC and Kyle Shanahan coaching the 49ers these teams have met four times since 2018, including in two Super Bowls. Reid and Kansas City have won all four games.
The victories have been convincing, too, as they have come by an average of 11.5 points. The closest finish was last season’s Super Bowl when Kansas City won 25-22 in overtime.
Kansas City had no trouble scoring against San Francisco’s defense, putting up 38, 31 and 44 points in the three meetings before Super Bowl 58. So why would we recommend the Under in this weekend’s matchup?
For that, we look to the Kansas City defense. In previous matchups, KC’s biggest weakness on defense has been in the run game. Kansas City has been better in that regard this season and has a good chance of limiting what the 49ers do best – or want to do best.
And then there‘s the Kansas City offense. It is down so many key offensive players that they brought back WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB Kareem Hunt. Mahomes’ unit did well against the Saints in its last game two weeks ago, but it will be tougher against San Francisco.
Because of their personnel losses, Kansas City is returning to its 2-3 tight end sets. Led by LB Fred Warner, San Francisco is well-suited to defend that personnel grouping.
Each time we want to count out Patrick Mahomes because he is missing players, he finds a way to win. Don’t be surprised if that comes to fruition again, but don’t expect it to be a shootout.
With Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Rashee Rice out for the season, Smith-Schuster is back in the spotlight as WR1. In his first full game in that role against New Orleans, he had seven receptions on eight targets for 130 yards.
Even if Smith-Schuster is no longer in his prime, he fills a necessary role for the Kansas City offense. Mahomes must get him the ball to keep the offense balanced.
Kansas City vs. 49ers moneyline odds analysis
Why San Francisco could win as the favorite
Best odds: -116 at FanDuel Sportsbook
As dominant as Kansas City has been against the 49ers in recent years, the 49ers are far from chopped liver. It’s reasonable to think San Francisco can finally get over the hump against Reid. The 49ers are favored in this game for a reason.
The defense is strong and might have what it takes to limit Kansas City’s offense with extra prep time. San Francisco played on Thursday Night Football last week, so the coaching staff has had nine days instead of six.
Along those lines, the 49ers staff know that Kansas City’s run defense is better this season and will add some surprises to their offense. That will boost the home crowd, which could be enough to get San Francisco over the top in a close game.
Why Kansas City could win as the underdog
Best odds: +102 at DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s great for Kansas City’s prospects in this game that it has a better run defense and that it might be in the 49ers’ heads. It might be greater that Reid is the best coach in NFL history off a bye week.
Reid is 21-4 all-time following a bye, including 20-2 when his team is coming off a bye and the opponent is not.
Do you think Reid won’t have something up his sleeve for the offense that is missing so many starters? Don’t miss this opportunity to bet on Kansas City as an underdog.
