Most voters expect election to be called shortly Three-quarters believe Coalition used Budget to buy votesFine Gael-Fianna Fáil and Independents coalition is favoured
Although the Taoiseach continues to resist pressure from backbench TDs eager to capitalise on what has been described as a €10.5bn giveaway budget last week, 55pc of those polled want to the election to be held this month or next – with 56pc predicting the country will go to the polls in November.
Three-quarters of poll respondents believe the Government was trying to “buy” the general election with Budget 2025, while 71pc agreed with criticism by the State’s fiscal watchdog, the IFAC, that it has put the country at risk of “repeating past mistakes”.
In all, 61pc of Fianna Fáil supporters and 46pc of Fine Gael voters agreed that the Budget was an attempt to “buy” the election, while 96pc of Sinn Féin supporters were of that opinion.
While Mr Harris will welcome the small increase in Fine Gael’s popularity, up one point to 26pc, the poll was less favourable to coalition partner Fianna Fáil, which saw its popularity drop by two points to 19pc.
However, Sinn Féin’s prospects of leading the next government look increasingly remote, despite the party’s one-point increase on the September poll. A Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil and Independents coalition is still viewed as the most likely government after the election.
On voter preferences, the full state of the parties is: Fine Gael up by one point at 26pc; Fianna Fáil down two points at 19pc; Sinn Féin up one point at 19pc; Social Democrats up two points at 6pc; Labour up one point to 5pc; Aontú up a point to 4pc; and no change for the Green Party or Solidarity-PBP. Independents and others are down three points to 16pc.
An increasing number of voters do not believe party leaders when they say the Government will go “full term” and hold an election in March, with 68pc disagreeing, up 10 points from when the question was last asked in the July poll.
Nearly half said they think Simon Harris will be Taoiseach after the election
However, in an outcome that may yet encourage Mr Harris to bow to the wishes of his backbenchers, 65pc of respondents said they did not think it would be “wrong” to call an election this year, despite repeated assurances that the Government will go full term.
Nearly half (49pc) said they think Mr Harris will be Taoiseach after the election, with 15pc believing it will be Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, 17pc opting for Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, 11pc unsure and 8pc answering “none of the above”.
Exclusive Sunday Independent Ireland thinks Poll reveals small gains for Fine Gael as Fianna Fáil down in poll following ‘giveaway’ Budget
There has been a marginal change in party leader approval ratings, with Mr Harris still on 53pc, Mr Martin on 50pc and Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns on 40pc. Ms McDonald has made modest gains, up to 34pc from 31pc last month.
Over-65s were the most in favour of the Government’s approach to spending in the Budget
Social welfare recipients (38pc) and families with children under 18 (29pc) were the biggest winners in the budget, according to the poll. Meanwhile, young people are seen as the biggest losers at 26pc, closely followed by businesses at 24pc, and tenants or first time buyers at 18pc.
People aged 18 to 34 were the most opposed to the Government’s approach to spending in the Budget, while the over-65s were the most in favour.
Education Minister Norma Foley came in for criticism last week for a €9m allocation to schools for mobile phone pouches so pupils can lock away their devices in class. Half of people said they did not trust the Government’s ability to manage public finances.
The Coalition has also been criticised for spending more than €330,000 on a bike shed and €1.5m on a security hut, both at Leinster House.
Asked who was to blame for cost overruns, half said civil servants, comfortably ahead of politicians on 29pc.
Nearly all respondents (95pc) believe the Office of Public Works (OPW), the state agency responsible for both projects, should publish a detailed breakdown of costs, contractors hired and duration of projects as these are completed.
Respondents were almost evenly split on whether Michael D Higgins should have written a letter congratulating Iran’s new president earlier this year, with 39pc believing he was right and 40pc believing he was wrong to do so.
A growing number of people believe it is wrong for the President to participate in current political debates, with 41pc of that view, up from 28pc in August’s poll. A slim majority (51pc), however, supported Mr Higgins’s right to speak out, with 8pc having no opinion.
