The leaves are changing, the temps are cooling but the football is just heating up. Week 8 was another delight.
So what caught my eye? What did we learn?
The 2024 Week 8 Stock Report:
📈STOCK UP — Surprising upstarts eyeing bowl eligibility
Cincinnati (5-2)
Colorado (5-2)
Vanderbilt (5-2)
Three teams that all won Saturday, and three teams that are now just a victory away from bowl eligibility despite preseason win-totals short of six victories.
Deion Sanders may be loud, flashy and full of flair, but the Buffs have quietly developed into a solid football team in 2024. They nearly upset Kansas State last weekend, and they rebounded from the tough loss with a dominating performance in a 34-7 blowout at Arizona.
Even with Travis Hunter limited with a shoulder injury and Shedeur Sanders throwing two picks and being held to a season-low 250 yards,
Colorado’s defense held Noah Fifita to just 138 yards passing. It had six sacks and three takeaways in what was easily the program’s best effort of the Sanders era.
Next up? Cincy, which also is a surprising 5-2 after handling Arizona State 24-14. The Bearcats have won three of their first four Big 12 games this season, and both their losses were games they gave away (coughed up a 21-point lead to Pitt, shanked a last second field goal in a three-point loss to Texas Tech). Scott Satterfield looked like an awful hire after Year 1 (3-9), but he has Cincy playing competitive, complimentary football this season.
Vanderbilt hardly impressed with a 24-14 win over lowly Ball State on Saturday, but Diego Pavia led the way once again with a season-high 275 passing yards, two total touchdowns and 82 yards rushing. Clark Lea has now won three straight games for the first time in his head coaching career, and the program is off to its best start in 40 years.
The ‘Dores are also now 4-0 at home with a wounded Texas team coming to town this week.
📉STOCK DOWN — 2025 NFL Draft 1st Round quarterback projections
After possibly a historic class of 2024 quarterbacks with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels finding early success in the NFL, are we sure there’s a definite 1st Round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
In all likelihood, multiple quarterbacks will still come off the board on Day 1, mainly because NFL franchises value that position (and the cost certainty) so much it’s worth the dice roll.
But take a gander at any number of preseason mock drafts or Top 50 Big Boards, and nearly all the projected 1st Round picks have not played to that standard midway through the 2024 season.
I’m talking Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman.
The SEC quintet has mostly underwhelmed, with Beck (yikes footwork) struggling badly against Alabama and Texas, Ewers having no chance against Georgia’s defense, Milroe nearly giving the game away against South Carolina and then playing poorly against Tennessee and Weigman having a single, outlier strong performance (vs. Mizzou).
The most impressive QBs this season have been Shedeur Sanders, who had his worst game of the season vs. Arizona but otherwise has been outstanding in Year 2 at Colorado, Miami’s Cam Ward (is he a true 1st Round quarterback, though) and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (sneaky athletic in the pocket, huge arm).
Then there’s guys like Riley Leonard, Drew Allar and Cade Klubnick who all should return to school in 2025.
Ultimately, at least one or more of these quarterbacks will come off the board on Day 1 in April. That’s just how the NFL Draft works these days, but the conversation around guys like Beck, Ewers and others has changed a lot since the start of the 2024 season.
STOCK HOLDING — Dead man walking coaches showing signs of life?
Baylor 59. Texas Tech 35.
Why hello there, Billy Napier and Dave Aranda.
Both head coaches, sitting on boiling hot seats, picked up huge wins Saturday against conference foes.
The Gators gave the Orange & Blue faithful a glimpse of the future, as DJ Lagway completed just 7 of 14 passes but had 275 yards at 18.5 yards per throw! Apparently, the freshman QB only carries $20s and $50s in his wallet as all seven completions went over 40 yards — with gains of 40, 50, 58, 44 and 40. Freshman tailback Jadan Baugh also tied a school-record with five rushing touchdowns, while the Gators had three interceptions including a pick-six from former blue-chip recruit Cormani McClain in his first action all season.
Florida has now won three of four, with just a dispiriting should’ve-been-a-win against a Top 10 Tennessee team last week.
Meanwhile, Baylor came out of nowhere to truck a decent Texas Tech team, posting a 50-burger on the Red Raiders in Lubbock. Sawyer Robinson threw for five touchdowns to end the Bears’ three-game losing streak.
Suddenly, Baylor is looking at a schedule that goes Oklahoma State, TCU, at WVU, at Houston and vs. Kansas — all very winnable games.
Could Napier and Aranda really save their jobs after both were declared dead and buried weeks prior?
In the words of Miracle Max, “There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.”
For now, that’s exactly where Napier and Aranda stand.
📉STOCK DOWN — Lincoln Riley has become Scott Frost reincarnate at USC
I wrote about Lincoln Riley’s old team Oklahoma in my Week 8 Overreactions piece, but the Sooners’ ex is living a nightmare that won’t end in Hollywood right now.
USC lost for the fourth time in five games this weekend — this time coughing up a 21-7 halftime lead at Maryland and losing on a last-second touchdown pass by Billy Edwards Jr.
All four losses (by a combined 14 points) have been painful, and nearly identical. USC is leading most of the game, and then coughs it up late — usually inside the final minute.
Week 5 at Michigan — In a tie game, Kalel Mullings score the go-ahead touchdown on 4th down in the final 30 seconds.
Week 7 at Minnesota — Max Brosmer punches it it on 4th-and-1 with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter. Miller Moss takes the Trojans inside the Gophers’ 20-yard line before throwing a game-ending pick.
Week 8 vs. No. 4 Penn State — Nick Singleton ties the game at 30-all with 2:50 remaining. USC then badly botches the final possession, which results in a Miller Moss pick. The game goes to overtime. USC goes backwards and misses a 45-yard field goal. Penn State drills a 36-yard kick.
Week 9 — at Maryland — See above.
Are the Trojans the best four-loss team in the country? Probably.
Does that matter? Not a bit.
Lincoln Riley is now 2-9 in one-score games at USC. He’s gone from being the Prodigal Son to follow Bob Stoops at Oklahoma to Scott Frost Reincarnate at USC. In 12 games in LA, his USC teams have blown a two-touchdown lead in almost half of them (five).
The only consistent element around Riley’s program right now is that his teams find new and excruciating ways to lose late each week.
When asked why his team’s keep faltering in one-score games, Riley responded, “I don’t know?”
That ain’t it, coach.
Riley would later add, “I have to get this team to play better at the end of games. I’ve obviously not done a good enough job of that. Clearly.”
Clearly.
It’s too premature to write Riley’s obit at USC. He has something close to $90 million guaranteed still coming his way. But if the situation keeps spiraling? If Saturday wasn’t the nadir for USC’s 2024?
Well, then it could be getting late much earlier than anyone ever imagined with the Trojans hired Riley at the end of 2021.
