As campaigning ramps up ahead of the US election on 5 November, polls have consistently shown a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
Harris’s campaign may have gained momentum since she took the baton from incumbent president Joe Biden, but Trump’s base remains strong, and his supporters turn out in droves in traditional battleground states that play a disproportionate role in deciding the outcome of the US election.
What is a swing state?
Across the US, many states are reliably Republican (red) or Democrat (blue), but some could be reasonably won by either party – these are referred to as ‘swing’ or ‘battleground’ states, and winning them is a crucial part of the road to the White House.
Traditionally, seven key states (carrying more than 90 electoral college votes of the 270 needed to win the election) are classed as swing states thanks to a combination of votes there being won on a knife-edge and election results flipping between red and blue in recent years.
Campaigns tend to dedicate much of their time (and budget) to swing states rather than spending money in ‘safe states’ where the result can be reliably predicted ahead of the election.
What are the swing states in 2024?
Read the full breakdown of the battleground states below or click to skip to a specific state:
Arizona
Border state Arizona carries 11 electoral college votes. Formerly a Republican stronghold, Joe Biden managed to flip the state blue in 2020 – but as a focal point for the controversial immigration debate (since it shares 372.5 miles of border with Mexico), Republicans are hoping to gain back control of the ‘Grand Canyon’ state.
“They’re pouring into California and they’re pouring into Arizona because those governors are not doing anything. They’re doing nothing,” Trump said of the state in March this year.
“That really tells you where they’re coming from. They want open borders – and open borders are going to destroy our country,” he added, pledging to bring in a deportation campaign if he wins the November polls – playing to the biggest concerns of the state’s voters (with 31% citing it as their key issue).
The former president held a rally in Tucson, Arizona, on 12 September, during which he told crowds he would “make housing affordable again” as well as repeating his claim that immigrants were eating household pets.
Latest polling data for Arizona shows Trump with a slight edge on Harris, on 47.4 to 46.8 respectively, according to an average from polling website FiveThirtyEight.
Georgia
Until 2020, Georgia had been a red state for almost 30 years, but was flipped by Biden at the last election – when he became the first Democrat to have taken the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Georgia has 16 electoral votes up for grabs and was among the states Trump falsely claimed to have won in 2020. Without winning Georgia, Trump’s road to the White House becomes far trickier.
Republican senator Lindsay Graham told CNN’s State of the Union several weeks ago: “If we don’t win Georgia, I don’t see how we get to 270 [electoral college votes].”
However, he added: “I do believe Georgia’s ours to lose. It’s really hard for Harris to tell Georgians that we’re on the right track – they don’t believe it.”
However, Trump is leading Harris in Georgia by an incredibly slender margin of 0.4%, with Trump currently polling on 47.6% in the state compared with Harris on 47.2%.
According to a survey from Georgia Public Broadcasting, Georgians identified abortion and the economy as key issues for the 2024 election, as well as bipartisanship and the environment – with immigration coming below these concerns.
Michigan
Part of the ‘blue wall’ that tipped the 2020 election in Biden’s favour, Michigan carries 15 electoral votes and is something of a bellweather state having successfully reflected the winner in eight of the last 12 presidential elections.
In 2020, Biden carried Michigan by 50.6% votes to Trump’s 47.8%, however Trump previously saw success in the state – in 2016 he became the first Republican to take Michigan since George HW Bush in 1988.
The state would be a key win for Trump – analysis from pollster Nate Silver reported by the New York Post suggests that a win in the state for Trump would see him have a 95% chance of taking the White House.
Polls show Harris leading in Michigan by 47.8% to Trump’s 46.1%.
Pennsylvania
When it comes to swing states, Pennsylvania is the big hitter. The Keystone State carries 19 electoral college votes (the most of any swing state) and, as such, has become a major focus for both the Trump and Harris campaigns.
Since the 1990s, Pennsylvania has been a reliably blue state – only flipping red for Trump in 2016, when his message resonated with the largely white working class population there.
Biden managed to win it back in 2020 with 50% of the vote to Trump’s 48.8%, after playing up his long-running connection to the state where he was born.
However, Pennsylvania also became the scene of one of Trump’s election challenges following ballot counting delays – which are expected once again in 2024, thanks to state rules that don’t allow the processing of mail-in ballots until 7am on election day.
Trump is already setting the state for a challenge in Pennsylvania, tweeting false allegations about voter fraud, suggesting 20% of mail-in ballots are fraudulent (none of them have yet been opened, as per the state’s rules).
Polls show Harris leading in Pennsylvania by 0.7% on 47.6% to Trump’s 46.9%.
Wisconsin
What used to be a reliably blue state in the ‘Rust Belt’ (the industrial heartland in the north-east of the country) has been considered a battleground state since 2016, when it turned red for Trump. However, Biden narrowly carried the state in 2020, and polls have shown Harris with an almost three-point lead over her Republican rival.
Less than one percentage point has separated the Republican and Democrat vote in four of the past six presidential elections in Wisconsin, which has a total of 10 electoral college votes,
Both campaigns have paid visits to the state, during which they have attempted to appeal to its large, white working class population – which ranks the economy among their chief concerns.
Additionally, the topic of abortion ranked highly among the concerns of Wisconsin voters, with a Marquette Law School Poll from last year showing 57% of them opposing the overturning of landmark abortion case Roe V Wade (giving Harris and her pro-choice stance the edge).
Indeed, polling averages from polling website FiveThirtyEight show Harris with a 2.8% lead over Trump, on 48.8% to Trump’s 45.9%.
Nevada
Nevada has a smaller number of electoral college votes than many of its swing state partners, adding just six to the tally needed to reach 270. However, its change from a reliably red state in the 1970s and 1980s, to a toss-up in the 1990s, to a more reliably blue state over the past four elections means it remains a battleground.
In the majority of recent elections, the winning candidate has taken Nevada by fewer than three percentage points. In the 2022 state governor elections, the Republicans emerged victorious with the election of Trump-supporting Joe Lombardo.
In 2023, nonpartisan voters made up a higher percentage of voters in Nevada than either Democrats or Republicans, sending a signal to both parties that it is (theoretically at least) anyone’s state to win.
Voters in Nevada view the economy as a key issue in the November poll, with inflation, housing costs and post-COVID financial issues hitting the state particularly hard.
Polling shows Harris edging out Trump in Nevada by just 0.6%, with Harris on 47% to Trump’s 46.4%.
North Carolina
Often dubbed a ‘purple’ state, North Carolina has actually only gone blue twice in recent years (in 1976 and 2008). Nonetheless, the state’s voting margins often come down to the wire – and, as such, it’s been identified as a battleground, with the Harris campaign visiting several times in recent months.
Key issues in the state include immigration, closely followed by the economy – with a Quinnipiac poll from April this year showing that Republicans in the state were most worried about immigration, while Democrats in the state identifying the preservation of democracy as a key concern.
It’s previously been a friendly state for Trump – he won in North Carolina in both 2016 and in 2020 – but he is continuing to campaign hard in the state anyway, promising residents more drilling, more jobs and lower taxes.
Polls in the state – which has 16 electoral college votes up for grabs – show the pair almost neck and neck, with Trump just edging out Harris on a knife-edge, with the former president on 47.4% and Harris on 47.3%.
