It seems that it is necessary get used to surprises that the economic variables give us.
In general terms, there had been a feeling that the Mexican economy would slow down soon, due to the fact that the timely indicator of economic activity of February anticipated a growth of only 0.6 percent at a monthly rate and 1.7 percent at annual rate.
In January, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) had marked a very poor 1.0 percent at an annual rate, so everything indicated that the results of the first trimester of the year would be relatively bad.
Well yesterday morning the surprise came.
The February data for the IGAE were much higher than expected.
At a monthly rate, the growth was 1.4 percent and at an annual rate of 2.6 percentalmost a percentage point above what the relevant figures reflected.
Something is happening with the timely reports, since the difference with the definitive data has been greater than usual.
One element that must be put on the table is that the figures from the agricultural sector They are not integrated into the appropriate estimates. And its variations have been very different from the average of the economy.
For example, in January, the agricultural IGAE (actually these are primary activities, but it is mostly agricultural) had a drop at an annual rate of 13 percent.
The contrast occurred in Februarywhen grew at a rate of 16.5 percent.
But it is not only this sector that explains the differences.
For example, in the tertiary sector (services and commerce), the timely estimate marked annual growth from 2.5 and ended up being 3.2 percent.
And since this sector is the one that weighs the most in the economy, it influenced the positive surprise that was recorded yesterday.
However, it seems to me that these discrepancies do not modify the substantive trends.
1.- The Mexican economy is going to continue growing.
2.- It is going to slow down. That is, it will not maintain, in general terms, the figures it had last year.
3.- There will be important differences between sectors of the economy and the regions of the country.
4.- The inaccuracies They do not imply that the appropriate indicators are of no use. The only thing that must be taken into account is that it must be considered that they may be subject to corrections, even relevant ones. Just as yesterday there was a positive surprise, do not rule out that at another time there may be another negative one.
The unknown of fiscal consolidation in 2025
It has already become commonplace to point out that in 2025 fiscal consolidation can be carried out without affecting government operating expenses because the adjustments will come in investment spending.
That was said on several occasions at the Banking Convention in Acapulco.
The doubt that I have expressed to you on several occasions is that, in accordance with the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2024, the planned reduction of programmable spending for 2025, which had already been contemplated since then, was 2.4 points of GDP.
Of that reduction, only half a point of GDP corresponded to one reduction of physical investment, while 1.3 points corresponded to one reduction in operating expenses and it was also contemplated another reduction of 0.9 percentage points of GDP in subsidies.
That is, the fiscal adjustment for 2025, which was already contemplated in the government’s medium-term scenarios since September of last year, cannot be explained exclusively by the end of large investment projects.
I think there will still be a lot to talk about.
