Given the persistence of the inflation in the countryhe Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will have to keep the reference rate unchangedat 11.00 percent, in its meeting this week, according to the analysts consulted by Citibanamex.
“Only 4 of the 36 participants anticipate an interest rate movement at the May monetary policy meeting, while 26 participants estimate a rate cut in June and 6 project it until the second semester,” the survey shows. In recent weeks, members of the Banxico governing board have declared that they will act in accordance with the data, where the inflation refuses to access.
In fact, the market consensus predicts that in April inflation would accelerate to 4.63 percent annually, from 4.42 percent in March, although the underlying inflation would moderate to 4.40 percent annually in April, below 4.55 percent in the previous month. .
Furthermore, the general inflation expectations for the end of 2024 increased slightly, Citibanamex highlighted.
“The general inflation projections for the end of 2024 were located at 4.17%, an increase compared to 4.10% fifteen days ago, while for the underlying component they increased slightly to 4.10% from 4.09%,” the survey indicated.
Analysts cut GDP expectations for 2024
Specialists also cut the GDP expectation for this year to 2.2 percent, from 2.4 percent, the level at which it has remained since January 5.
Masari Casa de Bolsa has the most optimistic forecast, which foresees GDP growth of 3.2 percent, and the lowest is XP Investments, with 1.4 percent.
The GDP expectation for 2025 it remained at 1.8 percent, a forecast it has remained at since the March 20 survey.
Regarding the exchange rate, the consensus estimates that it will close the year at 17.90 pesos per dollar without change in relation to the previous survey.
“However, for the end of 2025 the median forecast increased slightly to 18.80 from 18.70 a fortnight ago,” Citibanamex added.
