The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is known as The Sports Guy for good reason. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone else in sports media who could effortlessly nail cross-sport comparisons with the regularity that BS does, and this comparison for Phoenix Suns‘ forward Kevin Durant may be some of his best work yet.
On the latest episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons shared with Ryen Russillo a theory he had about Kevin Durant, who in a sweep at the hands of Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves, just didn’t seem to have the punch he once did in high profile matchups against another dominant scorer. Simmons said:
“It’s this weird thing that happens sometimes in sports where the guy gets older but he looks exactly alike. I remember this happened with Jerry Rice, where it wasn’t really Jerry Rice anymore but it still looked like Jerry Rice, and you’re like, ‘oh it’s Jerry Rice,’ when he was on the Raiders, but it wasn’t really Jerry Rice anymore. I don’t think that’s the case with KD because KD still statistically was awesome but what you’re talking about is there’s like a 5-6 %, decline is the wrong word, but he just can’t match baskets with somebody like Ant the same way when Ant’s feeling it like that.”
At first glance, this comparison seemed pretty spot on, and then I did some digging, and I found that it was even more relevant than Bill Simmons gave himself credit for. The following statistics are provided by Pro Football Reference and Basketball Reference respectively.
Jerry Rice’s first 12 seasons
Kevin Durant’s first 12 seasons
Jerry Rice was named an All-Pro ten times, won three Super Bowls, and led the league in receiving yards six times during his first twelve seasons in the NFL. Meanwhile, Durant made the All-NBA Team nine times in his first twelve seasons, led the league in points per game four times, and like Rice, won three championships.
Then what happened?
For both Rice and Durant, a serious injury rendered their thirteenth seasons basically non-existent. Durant didn’t play at all because of a torn achilles he suffered in the NBA Finals the season prior, and Rice was limited to just two games due to a torn ACL and MCL he sustained during the opening week of the season.
So how did the rest of their careers play out?
Jerry Rice’s next eight seasons
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Kevin Durant’s next five seasons
For any other receiver, a final stretch like Rice’s would’ve been considered an overwhelming success. But for Jerry Rice, it was abundantly clear that he just wasn’t the same guy he used to be. He still managed to put up three more seasons with at least 1,000 yards, as well as three with over 800 yards. Similarly, Durant has put up huge scoring numbers since coming back from a torn achilles, but he’s missed a lot of games and as Simmons pointed out, there’s just a noticeable, albeit slight decline in Durant’s game that you might not catch if you aren’t really paying attention.
