The national survey published today by El Financiero on the intention to vote for president offers several elements to analyze what could happen in the second presidential debate, which will take place this Sunday, April 28 at 8 pm, Mexico City time.
According to the survey, the positions of the leading candidates have moved very little in recent weeks, and Claudia Sheinbaum’s advantage over Xóchitl Gálvez remained the same as in the survey prior to the first debate. Nothing for anyone, it could be reading.
However, the survey offers other elements that do suggest a modification of the scenario and that I believe could influence the strategies for the second debate, if perhaps the campaigns are capturing in their studies the same as the El Financiero survey.
First, despite the spin political post-debate, in which the three campaigns were declared winners, the survey shows that Sheinbaum took first place round with some clarity: 44 percent of the people interviewed considered her the winner, compared to 18 percent for Gálvez and 6 percent for Máynez. He did not achieve a majority, but he was not competitive either.
It is natural that the followers of each candidate see their preferred option as the winner of a debate, but the survey shows two additional aspects: One, Sheinbaum convinced his own followers more than Gálvez convinced his: 75 and 62 percent. saw them as winners, respectively.
And two, the nonpartisan electorate raised its hand to Sheinbaum as the winner of the first debate with an even wider lead over Xóchitl than among the entire survey sample: 41 to 13 percent. Given that less loyal voters do not usually watch the debate directly, but rather find out about it afterwards, these data give us an idea of the post-debate effect.
The second element that emerges from the survey is that the negative image of Xóchitl Gálvez increased significantly, from 43 to 50 percent, and the perception that he is dedicated to attacking his opponent instead of making government proposals also jumped important, going from 42 to 58 percent.
In short, Xóchitl is leaving an image of negativity that the electorate is not receiving at all well, or at least not in the way he once responded to Fox or Calderón by launching attack campaigns.
Of course, this is neither 2000 nor 2006, but 2024, and there are two new generations of voters integrated into the electorate: millennials and centennials, the two digital generations. In this regard, the El Financiero survey indicates that the campaign of the PAN, PRI and PRD candidate is not connecting with the youngest segment, under 30 years old, where Sheinbaum’s advantage registered a slight rebound, and not so much because not have gained support but because Xóchitl had a slight setback.
Although the attacks do not seem to have helped at first, Gálvez already hinted that this Sunday he could follow an attack strategy in the debate again, showing how Sheinbaum “lies.” Perhaps his campaign’s calculation is that the attack could bring dividends closer to the election, but so far they have not been seen.
The attack strategy did not help Xóchitl after the first debate and rather seems to be harming him, so we will have to be attentive.
For her part, Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she will emphasize more the achievements of the AMLO government in economic matters (remember that the President was not satisfied with how little was boasted about his government in the first debate). It is possible that Sheinbaum follows a more promotional strategy and that she engages in attacks even less than the previous time; Although my expectation at that time was that the leader of the polls would not incur attacks and she did, almost on par with her main opponent, as we commented in this space two weeks ago.
On the MC side, Jorge Máynez is fortunate to have the same time as the other two candidates in the debate, despite having support between six and four times less than them, so he has to take advantage of the opportunity as best he can. way possible. His co-religionist in CDMX Salomón Chertorivski corrected errors, focused on proposals and had a better second debate, so it could be expected that Máynez could also have a better performance than the previous time.
Proposing a third way in a polarized environment, with two clearly opposite poles, is not an easy task for the MC candidate, but it is feasible that if Xóchitl Gálvez does not come out to convince, with greater forcefulness, with greater conviction and with greater appeal , some of his followers could turn to the orange corner. That would mean reaching the third debate in debacle.
