We are less than a month away from the elections. In addition to the presidential race, there will be a change of governor in nine states that, together, make up 40 percent of the country’s population: Chiapas, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán. Only in Chiapas, Puebla and Tabasco is Morena’s victory confirmed. In contrast, in Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Veracruz and Yucatán we will have a movie ending. Changes in the heads of state executives are complex moments in terms of security. Especially if there is alternation, and especially if the governor who leaves was lackadaisical.
In the past, the departures of controversial governors, with credible allegations of criminal ties, have led to severe crises. In these contexts, ‘arrangements fall apart’ and the transition gives rise to a very difficult period, in which some criminal groups seek to gain ground against rivals that were previously protected by the authorities. The new administrations, in addition, come to work with institutions in which they do not trust and have to dedicate the first months to exhausting purging processes. Two examples of this dynamic were the departure, in 2016, of Roberto Borge, in Quintana Roo, and Javier Duarte, in Veracruz. Both led to a dramatic increase in homicides and other high-impact crimes in 2017. This year, and next, things could get difficult in several of the states that will change governors. These are the four cases that seem most worrying to me.
First, Guanajuato. For years, the conflict between the CJNG and local mafias have turned the state into the scene of bloody confrontations and criminal attacks. The state prosecutor – Carlos Zamarripa, very close to the current PAN governor – has been in office since 2009, and his legal term extends until 2028. This, despite allegations of negligence in key investigations (to the extent that the president López Obrador has requested his resignation on several occasions). It is foreseeable that, whether or not there is alternation in Guanajuato, the distance between the Prosecutor’s Office and the new governor, be it Libia Dennise García, of the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance, or the Morenoist Alma Alcaraz, both of whom have anticipated the resignation of Zamarripa, if any of them wins the elections, will give rise to an institutional conflict. This conflict will add to the criminal pressures to control the city councils, and will lead to an upsurge in violence between the CJNG and his rivals, as well as attacks on police officers and other authorities.
Second, Chiapas. Here the security panorama is clearly deteriorating, and the elections, and the replacement of authorities, will contribute to the crisis. In the first quarter of 2024, the number of fatal victims of organized crime increased 150 percent, compared to the same period of the previous year. Community conflicts have become small wars between paramilitary groups, financed by organized crime, and extortion of businessmen is the order of the day. The new tenant of the National Palace and the future governor, most likely the Morenista Eduardo Ramírez, will find the state converted into a disaster zone.
Third, Morelos. This entity, along with Michoacán and Guerrero, is one where criminal penetration into the political sphere has been greater. The unsatisfactory performance of the Cuauhtémoc Blanco government in terms of security is one of the factors that explain why it is one of the few states where the ruling coalition is at risk of losing the governorship this year. In this regard, it should be emphasized that the opposition candidate, Lucy Meza, has managed to rise in the polls through a strategy of criticizing the security policy of the current governor and the current head of the State Security Commission, José Antonio Ortiz Guarneros, whom he has accused of having ties to crime.
Fourth, Tabasco. Until recently this was a relatively calm state. However, starting last February, criminal violence skyrocketed. The profile of the attacks suggests the arrival of new mafias seeking to establish themselves in the state, mainly to extort businesses. Intimidation of candidates has also been a hallmark of this wave of violence, which is shaping up to be the most severe in the state’s history. Morenoist Javier May will have to face a complex panorama, with criminal groups in dispute and police corporations co-opted by crime.
Is the outlook bad in all the states where a new head of the Executive will be elected? No. It seems to me that in Mexico City and Yucatán, at least, things are not looking bad. In both cases, important work has been carried out to professionalize the security sector. In the country’s capital, it was also possible to weaken the criminal groups that generated more violence and greater damage to society. For this reason, in these two entities, even if there was a change in the ruling party, the next administrations will have the necessary tools to maintain peace. Regardless of what is said in the campaigns, I believe that no one will throw these tools in the trash.
