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The mexican economy reported greater dynamism in February, driven mainly by the service sectorfavored by a higher household consumptionbefore a higher disposable income.
In the second month of the year the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) grew 2.6 percent annually, from 1.0 percent in January and was also its best figure in three months, in seasonally adjusted figures for the INEGI.
In the monthly variation, it reported its greatest advance in almost three years, since March 2021, reporting a figure of 1.4 percent, after three consecutive months of decline.
Citibanamex analysts They highlighted that the economic activity surprised on the upside in February, and noted that the monthly advance exceeded their forecast of 0.6 percent.
In original figures, the Annual growth It was 4.4 percent, well above the 2.7 percent estimated by the analyst consensus.
“Today’s figures exceed all forecasts, therefore, although a lower pace of economic growtha resilient economy”said Monex analysts.
He agricultural sector grew 5.8 percent annually in February, services advanced 3.2 percent, and industry rose 1.5 percent.
With these data, the economic activity can gain some momentum at least until before electionssince the arrival of a new government implies a less dynamism in the first year.
“We anticipate that, for the first semester, the activity will be supported by a solid private consumptionthe construction of public worksand one American economy apparently more resilient than expected,” said Ve por Más.
For Banorte analyststhe services were the main taxpayers to the expansion of the economy during February, pointing to a positive scenario.
“Consumer fundamentals were mixed, with multi-figure gains in the working marketbut with the weak remittances on the margin. However, the increase in household disposable income was key to supporting the improvement,” they added.
Of the serviceshe wholesale trade it had an expansion of 8.3 percent annually in February; information in the mass media of 5.5 percent, and in Health services The growth was 4.5 percent, reported the INEGI.
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Negative first quarter
Despite the rebound in February, the economy It is headed for a quarterly contraction, which would be the first since 2021.
Analysts of Base Bank indicated that the IGAE February continues to show a complex panorama for the GDP growth during the first quarter, since in January the economy It did not fall 0.6 percent monthly, but 0.9 percent.
They estimate that the economy would register a quarterly contraction of 0.13 percent and an annual growth of 1.84 percent.
JP Morgan foresees that the contraction of the economy be 0.2 percent quarterly and proposed that the link between services and manufacturemainly through transport and logisticsshould pave the way for a feedback positive in the coming months. However, he stated that both the completion of priority government projects in the first half of the year as a sudden stop of the electoral spending after the elections will harm the growth.
By contrast, Citibanamex analysts They indicated that considering the February figures and the timely information from March point to a growth quarterly of 0.1 percent.
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