The slowdown of the mexican economy at the beginning of 2024 it was not as pronounced after the upward revisions to the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE).
During February, the IGAEwhich due to its methodology is similar to GDP, had a monthly growth of 1.4 percentbreaking a four-month streak of no progress, according to seasonally adjusted figures published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
This data was revised upwards, since in the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) presented a few days ago, estimated an advance of 0.6 percent.
Which sector of Mexico’s economy grew the most in February?
Those with the best dynamism were the primaries or those linked to the field with a 16.5 percent monthly rebound in February, from January’s 13 percent contraction.
Regarding tertiary or service activities, they had a monthly growth of 1.2 percent in February, data that was also revised from an estimate of 0.6 percent.
Inside the tertiary highlighted the performance of wholesale tradewith an increase of 4 percent monthly and information in mass media by 1.9 percent.
By contrast, secondary or industrial activities They had a monthly contraction of 0.1 percent in February, due to a 2.5 percent drop in construction and 0.8 percent in mining.
Faced with these data, Banco Base stressed that the publication of the February IGAE shows a complex outlook for Mexico’s GDP growth during the first quarter, since in January the economy did not fall 0.6 percent monthly, but 0.9 percent.
“Considering the above and the monthly IOAE growth of 0.20 percent in March, the GDP for the first quarter would show a quarterly contraction of 0.13 percent and an annual growth of 1.84 percent, which would be the lowest growth since January 2021,” Base added.
‘2024 election effect’ is already being felt in the economy
Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody’s Analitycs, said that economic activity began to be stimulated due to the expansive phase of political cycle of the 2024 elections starting in February, in anticipation of the start of political campaigns.
“Political spending began to flow into the economy, promoting transport, printing, media, wholesale trade and especially construction activities. “The political cycle serves the economy once again,” Coutiño said in his X account.
At an annual rate, the IGAE shows a growth of 2.6 percent in February, its best data in three monthsdata that also had an upward revision from 1.7 percent.
By sector, primaries grew 5.8 percent annually in February; tertiary education 3.2 percent and secondary education 1.5 percent.
