Thunderstorms should be particularly strong from the end of the day, this Wednesday, in Île-de-France. Météo France has placed the region in orange alert (level 3 of 4). “High intensity of precipitation, hail and gusts of up to 80 km/h” are expected until the night.
Keraunos, even places part of the region in level red, which corresponds to level 4 out of 5 according to its classification. The tornado and severe storm observatory considers that this area is exposed to the risk of the most violent storms of the day, supercell storms. Hailstones measuring between 2 cm and 3 cm are feared. There is a non-zero risk that their size exceeds 5 cm.
Up to almost a month of rain in just a few minutes
Furthermore, the region is affected by a risk of tornado formation. The probability is estimated between 15% and 30% that such a phenomenon will occur. So this doesn’t mean it will definitely happen. But this percentage was the same in force in Pas-de-Calais, on April 8, when a tornado hit Lestrem and caused damage.
This map provided by Weather sky allows you to follow the progression of storms over the last five hours. This also makes it possible to anticipate their arrival in the region once they have been trained and will move back to the north of the country.
The Weather Channel established a map of the progression of the strongest storms. It shows that the region should be hit by the most virulent cells between approximately 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.
Between 30 mm and 50 mm of rain could fall in a few hours, or up to 50 liters per square meter. This duration could even be counted in tens of minutes due to the expected intensity of the precipitation. This accumulation corresponds to almost a month of rain.
Concerning hail, it is Seine-et-Marne which should be the most exposed. This map below shows the probability of finding yourself under hailstones. The more pronounced the color, the higher the risk.
On Thursday, showers should follow one another in the region. But they should only be rainy.
