The growth of the Mexican economy depends largely of the situation that the American is going throughwhere the key indicators such as employment and trade exchange They allow you to have an idea of what is coming.
A few days ago, it was announced that in USA 175 thousand jobs were addedthe lowest figure in six months and well below the 250 thousand expected by the market, according to nonfarm payroll data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Although this is only a figure below expectations, it could be a turning point in the American economywhose labor market has been tight, and which has caused resistance in inflation.
A moderation of the labor markettherefore, would cause fewer compatriots to have a source of employment and reflect in the sending of remittances to their relatives in Mexicobut without seeing a pronounced drop in these.
Banxico data showed that, in March, The average amount sent to Mexico in remittances was 382 dollars, the lowest in 11 months. In March they even spent three months moderating.
In this sense, BLS figures reveal that the average the unemployment rate of foreigners in the United States, which includes legally admitted migrants, is 4.2 percent from January to Aprilthe highest for the same period since 2021.
For the US economy overall, the average unemployment rate in the first four months of the year is 3.8 percent.
“Inflationary pressures stand out in our northern neighbor, still concentrated in services. Furthermore, the strength of the Mexican peso – even in the face of recent episodes of risk aversion – continues to represent a challenge for the purchasing power of shipments in local currency,” according to Banorte.
Affected sectors
The analysis of remittances lands on a focus on the family economy, because they are direct transfers, but There are also sectors that could go through times with less dynamism.
For example, Mexican exports showed a growth of 1.7 percent annual in the first quarter of the year, the lowest for the same period since 2020, when the pandemic began.
By excluding 2020, the export data for the first quarter of the year It would be the weakest since the 5.9 percent contraction in 2016.
The engine of exports is Mexican manufacturing, which recorded a growth of 1.9 percent annual in the first quarter, the lowest since 2020.
One of the keys will be the evolution of American industrial productionwhich in the first quarter had a fall of 0.3 percent annuallywhere manufacturing also fell 0.3 percent.
Although analysts predict an improvement in the United States industry, The expectation is that throughout the year it will grow 0.5 percentfrom 0.2 percent in 2023, which is still weak data.
“High interest rates, past tightening of credit conditions and uncertainty around the outcome of the 2024 election will prevent even stronger performance compared to last year,” Oxford Economics added.
