It accelerates to 4.63% in the first half of April – El Financiero

Within inflation it was observed that the underlying It stood at 4.39 percent annually in the first half of April, its lowest rate since the first half of May 2021.

Non-core inflation stood at 5.38 percent annually, accelerating from 4.23 percent annually at the end of March. This is the highest reading since the first half of February 2023, driven by the 6.98 percent advance in the agricultural priceswith 18.22 percent in fruits and vegetablesaccording to INEGI records.

Pressures were also observed in the energy prices prices, which rose 4.39 percent annually, their highest level in a year and a half. On the contrary, the underlying index It moderated slightly to 4.39 percent annually, its lowest level since May 2021.

In its biweekly comparison, the inflation was 0.09 percent, and the expectation was for a drop of 0.06 percent. “He biweekly increase in inflation is unusual, since, from 2010 to 2024, only positive biweekly inflations in the first half of April in 3 years: 2021, 2022 and 2024,” said Banco Base.

Jessica Roldán, chief economist of Finamex Casa de Bolsa, said to Bloomberg Financial which were not good data, and the surprise was in the non-underlying componentparticularly in the prices of agricultural goodswhich have registered many fluctuations in the annual reading in recent months.

“What we see are signs, not alarms, but they do not suggest that downward inflation pressures are operating,” he said.

Ve por Más Analysts they indicated that inflation accelerated more than expected and the recent rise in raw material prices complicate the short-term scenario.

Pressure on services

Inside the underlying, the inflation of services was 5.21 percent annually, accelerating from 5.17 percent in the second half of March and adding 21 months above 5.0 percent. In other services it is up 6.0 percent from May 2023.

Of the services stood out the House with an advance of 0.15 percent; at the cinema, prices rose 1.11 percent; hair cutting, 0.72 percent, and professional services, 0.70 percent in its biweekly comparison.

Regarding merchandise, an annual inflation of 3.72 percent was reported in the first half of April, its lowest rate since the end of December 2019.

However, food goods showed an annual inflation of 4.85 percent and non-food inflation of 2.38 percent.

Roldán pointed out that the persistence registered the service index is worrying, showing significant pressure on the priceswhich is supported by several elements.

“The service inflation does not give in, and of course, if the wages They maintain a very good growth rate. The salaries in the service sector they grew 10.0 percent real; in manufacture, 4.9 percent; all the IMSS5.0 percent,” said the consulting partner of Integralia, Carlos Ramírez.

Citibanamex analysts they pointed out that pressures on service prices remain elevated and predict that they would follow a gradual downward path until conditions in the working market they relax

Regarding goods a was reported annual inflation of 3.72 percent annually in the first half of April, its lowest rate since the end of December 2019. In the food merchandise a was recorded inflation of 4.85 percent annually and in the non-food The advance was 2.38 percent annually.

What were the fruits and vegetables that rose the most in price?

The pressures in agriculture were given in fruits and vegetables. The most pronounced fortnightly increases were serrano chiliwith 31.81 percent; green tomato, 22.97 percent; others fresh chilies18.39 percent.

As for the energy and rates authorized by the government An annual inflation of 4.01 percent was reported in the first two weeks of April, which linked five periods of acceleration.

He LP domestic gas had a biweekly increase of 1.09 percent; the high octane gasoline of 0.45 percent and the low octane gasoline of 0.25 percent.

“It is likely that the non-core inflation continue to increase, at the margin, during the coming months, due to the rebound in energy prices and to unfavorable base effects,” Abadia added.

Banxico pause

For analysts, inflation data strengthened the expectation that the Bank of Mexico will maintain the reference interest rate by 11 percent at the May meeting.

“With the increase in the general inflation rate of 4.6 percent, along with the delay in rate cuts in the US and the fall of the pesoit is almost certain that Banxico It will leave its policy rate unchanged at 11.0 percent at its May meeting,” said Kimberley Sperrfechter, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Alberto Ramos, chief economist for Latin America, Goldman Sachs, agreed that the inflation data, the recent evolution of the exchange rate, the trajectory of the rates in the United States and the dollar strength they point out that Banxico will not cut the rate in May.