Scenes of desolation follow one another. The results of the floods ravaging southern Brazil rose to 100 deaths this Wednesday and remains provisional. The situation could get even worse for residents of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Here is what we know about this disaster.
Heavy rain expected
Since the end of April, torrential rains have fallen on the south of Brazil, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, bordering Argentina and Uruguay, causing the overflow of several rivers and streams. of water. In Porto Alegre, the regional capital, the Guaiba River which runs through the city reached up to 5.30 m, shattering the last recorded record of 4.76 m, in 1941.
State governor Eduardo Leite declared a state of emergency last Wednesday and called the floods “the worst climate disaster” in the region’s history.
The situation could get even worse in the coming days according to the specialized site MetSul Meteorologia due to further precipitation expected by the end of the week in the far south of the state, so far rather preserved. Volumes equivalent to one or two months of precipitation in four days, or more than 100 mm according to the National Institute of Meteorology, are expected. In the center and the north, rain is also forecast.
A heavy toll
On Thursday, Civil Defense reported a toll of 100 dead, 130 missing and 374 injured. Already heavy, it is only temporary because rescue operations are difficult due to the weather conditions. The Porto Alegre town hall asked “boats engaged in rescue operations” to temporarily suspend their activities due to winds exceeding 80 km/h.
Some localities also find themselves completely isolated, surrounded by water and difficult to access. Bridges have been destroyed and dams are in danger of collapsing. Emergency measures have been taken by the state government for five infrastructures, two of which are at risk of “imminent failure”. A dam already partially broke last Thursday, causing a two-meter wave in the town of Bento Gonçalves.
In addition to the human losses, very significant material damage is to be deplored. In Porto Alegre and in the 400 localities hit by bad weather, more than 163,000 people were forced to flee their homes, sometimes burglarized. More than 61,000 homes were damaged or destroyed according to the National Confederation of Municipalities.
The economic losses are expected to be record high. They are already estimated at 6.3 billion reis (or around 1.1 billion euros), according to projections and the damage suffered by public services, schools, hospitals and town halls, is estimated at 351 million reis, or 64 million euros. Governor Eduardo Leite estimated that 19 billion reis would be needed to rebuild the state.
The Brazilian government will release 50 billion reis for the reconstruction of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a southern region devastated by unprecedented floods, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced Thursday.
The consequences of this climatic disaster could also be felt throughout the country because this agricultural region has the 4th largest GDP in the country. In particular, it supplies more than two thirds of the rice consumed in Brazil. The federal government has already announced the import of 200,000 tonnes of rice to avoid a surge in prices and secure supplies.
Health crisis and donations
In the affected areas, the health situation is worrying, particularly due to stagnant water in which waste sometimes floats. “Contaminated water can transmit diseases,” warns the Civil Defense spokesperson.
The Canoas military base, on the outskirts of the regional capital, was mobilized for the transport of aid and passengers according to the air force. The authorities are trying to build a “humanitarian corridor” to supply the city where drinking water is lacking. Only one of the six water treatment plants is still functioning and the accommodation centers are supplied with tankers, according to TV5 World.
Brazilian President Lula promised that the region would not lack “means” in the face of the disaster. The federal government has committed to sending helicopters, boats and hundreds of soldiers to strengthen relief and food distribution operations, particularly in the most isolated localities. Around 15,000 people are mobilized. Argentina and Uruguay also provided personnel and equipment.
The Vatican announced Thursday that the Pope had donated around 100,000 euros, or more than 500,000 reis, to help flood victims. On his account X, (formerly Twitter), the Brazilian player Neymar called for generosity. “This is a delicate moment that our Brazil is going through and helping is never too much,” wrote the Brazilian. Whatever your financial situation, what matters is what you hold in your heart. »
El Niño and global warming
Although it is still early to determine the precise causes of the disaster, it could result from the combination of several factors. First of all the natural phenomenon El Niñoappeared in June 2023.
This periodic disturbance, characterized by higher than normal surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has repercussions across the planet. In South America, it can lead to an increase in atmospheric humidity and therefore favorable conditions for severe weather, deciphers Release.
But these episodes are intensified by global warming which makes these events “always more frequent and more extreme”, indicates José Marengo, head of research at the National Center for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), cited by AFP . In September, Rio Grande do Sul was swept by a cyclone, causing the death of 31 residents.
These extreme precipitations in the southern part of South America have been predicted by scientific models for a long time, underlines the Climate Observatory. At the end of March the state of Rio was hit by a violent storm and torrential rains which caused the death of at least twenty people. In February 2023, 180 people were killed and another 150 in November during similar floods.
Experts deplore a lack of anticipation of these disasters, whose deadly effects could be mitigated in particular by preventing construction in risk areas. Last year, Brazil was the scene of 1,161 disasters of varying nature and size. A record since records began in 2011.
