As you surely remember, populism can be defined as the system in which the leader destroys the institutional framework to establish a direct relationship between the “people” and him. To do this, he invents a glorious past that was lost due to the evil arts of an elite that must be eliminated, and he uses all possible economic resources to cement the relationship with the “people.” That is what we have experienced in Mexico.
Today there is no longer a professional public administration, although the agencies remain there. There is practically no one who knows or can handle them, there are no resources for basic expenses, and there is no direction. Part of the functions of these agencies was invaded by the Armed Forces, which for this reason can no longer fulfill their original functions. We have not had the need to defend the territory from a foreign attack, but we have lost control of no small part of it in the face of internal attacks.
The federal government exists now only to distribute money, deny health services, block permits for electricity generation or crude oil exploitation, prevent private businesses and manage the bankruptcy of the educational system. The deterioration is monumental.
The lack of money is leading to the looting of Afores, but also to the postponement of payments, which add up to the largest public deficit in almost four decades. The lack of results, with the intention of destroying any vestige of counterweight, that is, the Judicial Power.
However, a large number of people continue to think that the June 2 election is normal, and with that perspective they evaluate the candidates and imagine scenarios. They believe, for example, that Claudia Sheinbaum could become President and offer different policies than López Obrador. Go back to the first paragraph: the concentration of power is not in the Presidency of the Republic, but in the leader who connects directly with his “people.” If it’s not clear to you what that means, ask seniors where their pension comes from. Not from the State, nor from the government: Andrés Manuel gave them to them.
If Sheinbaum wins (something possible, but less likely every day), he will have an opposition Congress, which will respond to orders from Palenque; he will have a cabinet approved by his predecessor; He will not have money, nor solid relationships with armed groups, legal or criminal. Morena is not even a political party, much less a disciplinary machinery like the old PRI was. When in doubt, they will prefer to respond to Palenque than to Palacio.
It will be then when those people who today do not understand what is happening will realize that there will be no way out. The Congress will begin in September, still under the current presidency. There the measures that we already know will be promoted, always unconstitutional, against which Sheinbaum will not be able to resist. In October, already in the Presidency, she will be handcuffed, and the following month will come the American election, and the replacement of Minister Luis María Aguilar in the Supreme Court. The shortlist to succeed him will come from Palenque. With four ministers, there will no longer be a way to declare a law unconstitutional. This week’s unpleasantness will pass without difficulty.
They will say in surprise that they did not expect that, that they trusted that Sheinbaum would be different, even though he tells them every day that he is not, that he will continue the work of his mentor, that he has nothing more to offer. He would be neither different nor the same, he would be another instrument of the populist, who as long as he has power, there is no limit that can stop him. Or what is the same: there will be no rights for anyone other than him. Including you, of course.
