Sheinbaum, 49%; Xóchitl, with 32% – El Financiero

Facing the second presidential debatescheduled for this Sunday, April 28, the intention to vote for president at the national level favors Claudia Sheinbaum, with 49 percent of preferences, followed by Xochitl Galvez, with 32 percent; Jorge Álvarez Máynez, with 8 percentand 11 percent who did not express a preference, as revealed by a national survey of The financial, held from April 17 to 24 to 1,360 voters.

The variations with respect to previous poll are minimal: 2 points of negative variation in support for Sheinbaum and Gálvez, and a point of positive variation for Máynez. Everything seems stable on the surface.

However, the study reveals some variations in support between subgroups and changes in the image of the leading candidates: Sheinbaum’s lead widened a little among women, among those over 50 years of age and among voters with basic educationbut it decreased among voters with university education.

According to the survey, Sheinbaum maintains a 3 to 1 advantage over Gálvez between voters who receive social programs of the government, while the opposition candidate has a 10-point advantage among those who do not receive support from the government.

Regarding the image of the leading candidates, both decreased in their positive opinions and increased their negative ones after the first debate: the favorable opinion regard of Sheinbaum fell from 55 to 49 percentand their negatives varied slightly, from 30 to 32 percent.

In the case of Gálvez, positive opinion fell from 39 to 29 percent, 10 points, while negative opinion increased from 43 to 50 percent. Apparently, the first debate did not help the opposition candidate.

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The study reveals that less than half of the people interviewed watched the first presidential debatewhich one 44 percent saw Claudia Sheinbaum as the winner, and 18 percent saw Xóchitl Gálvez as the winner.

When evaluating what candidates are doing most, if proposals or attacksthe proportion that see the two leading candidates attacking or criticizing rose in the last survey, from 22 to 29 percent, in the case of Sheinbaumand of 42 to 58 percent, in the case of Gálvez. This growing perception of attacks could be behind the negative changes registered in the image of both candidates, but mainly of Xóchitl Gálvez, who will have another opportunity to confront Sheinbaum and the ‘4T’ this Sunday.

Methodology: National survey carried out by telephone to 1,360 Mexican adults from April 17 to 24, 2024. A probabilistic sampling of residential and cell phones was carried out in the 32 states. At a 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the estimates is +/-2.7 percent. The cross-sections by sex, age, education, beneficiaries and region consider interviews carried out between March and April. A complete report of the study and its methodological characteristics is delivered to the INE. “The results reflect the electoral preferences and opinions of the respondents at the time of the study and are valid for that population and specific dates.”