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The rebound in investment and the future of the economy – El Financiero

Stimulating figures at the beginning of May, investment registered a rebound in April that was complemented by the strength of the growth of formal employment recorded in the IMSS. Regarding investment, the INEGI presents the results of the Monthly Indicator of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (IMFBCF). This allows us to know the behavior of investment in fixed assets in the short term in February 2024 and with seasonally adjusted figures, gross fixed capital formation increased 0.7% in real terms, at a monthly rate. By component, expenses on machinery and equipment – ​​of national and imported origin – grew 2.6% and in construction decreased 1.3% at a monthly rate, last February and with seasonally adjusted data. At an annual rate and with seasonally adjusted series, gross fixed capital formation increased 10.7% in real terms. Internally, construction expenses rose 14.2%, and machinery and equipment, 6.7% in February 2024.

The reader will say: “well, these are interesting numbers, but what a message they send us.” These figures should serve the authorities in charge of the economy and those in charge of infrastructure as lenses of what is happening and where the bottlenecks could be located. If Mexico is thinking about increasing its capabilities through the initiative of nearshoring It should be worrying that the construction component is decreasing because it is, through this component, that new investments could be attracted to certain regions of the country. In terms of construction, we should be increasing the capacities of industrial parks throughout the country, since if the infrastructure is insufficient, foreign investment is discouraged, and chooses new location options, which may be within the national territory or abroad. .

Currently there are 425 industrial parks in the country, spread across 27 states. The challenge is to grow these spaces rapidly to attract new investments. In Mexico there are 425 industrial parks, 289 of them on the northern border, 124 in the Bajío, and 59 in the center of the country (State of Mexico and Puebla). If we aspire for the process to cover the entire country, a new industrial infrastructure development policy is required. We cannot think of wanting to develop the country if it does not have roads, railways and industrial spaces to attract foreign investment.

In this perspective, it is necessary to redesign the country’s industrial policy, it is necessary to think about physical and human infrastructure, since one of the great limitations that exist is precisely that there is no necessary physical conditions and there is also no labor force. that can operate a sophisticated industrial plant. In this perspective, a redesign of the Ministry of Economy is required so that rather than thinking about imposing tariffs as a stimulus to national production, we think about a more complex scheme of what could be called a package that includes stimuli, specialization discussions, development of industrial parks and infrastructure.

It is a complex task that demands a restructuring of the public sector to make the redesign of the industry operational. However, more audacity is required than what the current Ministry of Economy has now been carrying out; it seems pertinent to impose tariffs to stimulate national production and limit imports. However, this is insufficient; it is necessary to coordinate efforts to jointly design the industrial complex of the 22nd century with industrialists. This requires a redesign of the Ministry of Economy to integrate the strategic planning processes for the next 50 years, which requires joint efforts with other agencies.

To the above must be added the financial component; For the full development of the new industrial project, it is necessary to develop a functional development bank for these purposes, for which a bank is required that supports preliminary projects, infrastructure and product development. This requires a great effort to purge the development banking sector to make it functional for a new transformation of the country. In short, an industrial culture is required within the public sector, since the current one has aged and has not known how to renew itself to adapt to a more complex reality.

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