The announcement is rather symbolic and does not evoke a real threat. The American meteorological services placed an area of the North Atlantic under surveillance on Wednesday for the first time this year. A cyclone could form off the coast of Africa, southwest of the Canaries and northwest of Cape Verde.
THE US Hurricane Center (NHC), however, immediately tempers the situation. It only assesses the risk of a hurricane forming in the observed disturbance zone at 10%. “No further developments are expected. »
However, a notable fact should be noted in this observation. The NHC issued its first alert bulletin on April 24. However, the hurricane season in the North Atlantic does not begin until June 1st.
As Gaétan Heymes, Météo France forecaster, points out, the 2024 season promises to be “exceptionally active”. The system observed on Wednesday is therefore certainly “anecdotal”. But it lays the foundation for what could be a remarkable year.
The American university of Colorado State University recently warned of the risk of experiencing an extraordinary year. Its analysis is based in particular on the record temperature of ocean water.
It anticipates that between 20 and 23 tropical phenomena (depressions capable of giving rise to storms then hurricanes) could form compared to an average of 14. The number of hurricanes could reach 11 units compared to 7 on average. Five of them could be major, that is to say with a level of at least three 3s on a scale of 5.
