The most recent national voting intention survey published by El Financiero shows the enormous heterogeneity of political preferences from the country.
There are marked differences by region, by gender, by level of schooling, by socioeconomic condition, by access or not to social programs, among other factors.
Of course, everything has to be summarized in a single figure, that of the total vote. It is better known and has been more commented the advantage that Sheinbaum has over Gálvez, 17 points according to the most recent survey by El Financiero.
The contrast in voting intentions according to voters’ attributes is less noted.
1-Sheinbaum has a marked preference among womenwhere his advantage over Gálvez It is 27 points compared to the 6 points that it has in the case of men. It is not the gender of the candidates that explains this difference, obviously. Perhaps it is the fact that women, many of them responsible for managing the home, are more afraid of a change in policies that puts social support at risk.
2-Those who declared that they or their family members receive social support have a favorable preference for Sheinbaum 45 points above those who support Gálvez. If there were just a few of them, perhaps they would not tip the balance, but it turns out that 57 percent declared they received this support. If the election were made only among those who do not receive social benefits, Xóchitl would win by a margin of 10 points.
3-The educational level weighs a lot also in political preferences. If, to vote, it were essential to have university studies, the preferences between the candidates would be practically tied. Among those who only have basic educationthe preference in favor of Claudia is 31 points and 23 points among those who only have secondary education. Although the middle classes are not only made up of those who have a higher level of education, they do represent an important part of them, which is reflected in these contrasts.
4-The geography of the country also reflects these inequalities. Although Sheinbaum is ahead in almost all regions, there are some, such as the central-westwhere there are several parties governed by the opposition and that make up Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit and Querétaro, where the advantage is 8 points. In contrast, in the southern states of the countrythe advantage of 28 points.
5-Age is another relevant factor. Statistics show that those over 50 years old They tend to have higher than average participation rates. In that segment, the advantage of the official candidate is 24 pointscompared to the 14 points that correspond to citizens between 30 and 49 years old.
I don’t know what the strategy of the candidate or candidates will be in the debate tonight, but the rational thing would be to try to influence those voters who have not yet decided their vote or that, having done so, they could still change.
Is about 34 percent. It is a proportion that, if tilted in favor of a single candidate, could change the result. If the distribution of the vote of this segment was similar to that of those who did declare their voting intentions, then it will not significantly affect the result.
As we mentioned before the first debate. The pressure is going to be on Xóchitl. He no longer has many more opportunities to change the electoral environment. If you waste tonight’s, it will be almost impossible for you to come back.
Claudia only has the task of resistingand he has shown that he has the talent for it.
AND Jorge Álvarez Máynez He has correctly done the task of making himself present, which could give him a percentage that few considered achievable when he began his campaign.
We will see.
