What can we expect from the Falcons No. 8 overall draft pick?
If you didn’t know the name Michael Penix Jr., you likely do now. The Atlanta Falcons more or less made the former Washington Huskies quarterback a household name after selecting him with their No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft this past weekend.
That’s not necessarily because Penix will be the next great quarterback in the NFL. He very well could be that. But due to the Falcons’ situation, one where they signed quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency to a four-year, $180 million contract, Atlanta put itself in an unprecedented predicament.
Penix’s draft selection by the Falcons could go down as one of the more puzzling, jaw-dropping picks in the history of the NFL Draft. Each side has room for argument as to why the pick was a waste or value, but it deserved its questioning nonetheless.
When most rookie quarterbacks enter the league now, they’re going to teams that have an immediate need at the position and typically get the Week 1 starting job, if not just a few weeks later. All three of last year’s high draft picks, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, made their first career starts in Week 1.
That wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bears’ Caleb Williams, the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the Patriots’ Drake Maye, and even the Vikings’ JJ McCarthy all get their starts during Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. But one quarterback that likely won’t is Penix, placing a big fat question mark on the start of his NFL career.
However, Penix, should his talent arise and situations happen, we should get to see the quarterback eventually hit the field. So, let’s get into some early predictions on Michael Penix Jr.’s career with the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr. gets his first career start in 2025
Even though he’ll be 24-years-old on May 8 and has a wealth full of experience at the collegiate level playing at both Indiana and Washington, don’t expect Penix to make his first career start in 2024. Normally, most fans probably wouldn’t hate on that too badly, given as how some quarterbacks can benefit by sitting out a year and learning the NFL system. But Penix is an outlier here.
Penix is coming out of Washington into the NFL having spent six years and played in 49 games between Indiana and Washington, where he was granted extra years of eligibility due to injuries and the 2020 pandemic. However, because of his unique situation in Atlanta having to sit behind Cousins for the unforeseeable future, no one should expect him to get the nod in 2024.
The 2025 season seems like a more realistic timeline. That’s only because as of now, veteran backup Taylor Heinicke is the backup, so should Cousins need to miss some time, Heinicke, at least for the 2024 season, will most likely get the start over Penix. But, in 2025, that’s where the real competition may begin. So, whether it’s Cousin’s lack of production or getting hurt, that’s when we’ll see Penix make his first career start.
The only exception where that may differ is if the Falcons were to somehow seal up the NFC South division early this upcoming season and they could make no movement forward or backward in seeding of the playoffs. That would give Cousins a rest and allow him to avoid being hurt before the postseason and allow Atlanta to get their first look at what they have in their future.
Michael Penix Jr. takes over as starter in 2026
Cousins may have signed a four-year, $180 million deal with the Falcons but that doesn’t mean he’ll be on the Atlanta roster past the 2025 season. The only real certainty with Cousins is the first two years of his contract and that the Falcons in the end will owe him $100 million. The team can eat $25 million of his contract in dead money against the salary cap after 2025, or $12.5 million after 2026, according to Spotrac.
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That gives Penix essentially two whole years of sitting behind and learning from Cousins, necessary or not. Again, there will likely be some starts and fill-in time in between, due to either injury or coming in during garbage time, but it would be awfully surprising if Penix, by then age 26, is not behind center as the starter for the Falcons in 2026.
Michael Penix Jr. wins his first postseason appearance as a starter
If Fontenot and Morris are truly trying to sustain for the future of the franchise and build a consistent winner, then by the time Penix does become the starter, the team should be a well-oiled machine. Hopefully, by that point, Penix has at least tasted what the playoffs are like, even if the Falcons are led there by Cousins. The experience would be invaluable.
That’s also two more draft classes and free agencies for the Falcons to make some major additions. Fontenot will have to start figuring out what to do with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson by then, however, as their rookie deals will be coming to an end. All of those guys could be hitting their primes if they’re still on the team roster.
If the Falcons stick to their long-term plan, and better yet, it works to its full potential, then Penix could have all the tools he needs to lead the Falcons to the playoffs and pick up his first postseason victory.
