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Sunday, March 3, 2024

Higher inflation is temporary and will resume its downward trend – El Financiero

The increase that has been recorded inflation It is not a matter of concern for him. Bank of Mexico (Banxico). On the contrary, it is expected to return to its downward trend and continue the disinflationary process of the country, he stated Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, governor of the monetary organization.

In interview with The financialexplained that the current situation reflects underlying inflation with downward trajectory; However, the No underlying has increased visibly before the price increase in fruits and vegetables by climatic factorsbut this would be a time pressure.

“These supply shocks, like the one we are observing, tend to reverse relatively quickly, so the effects on inflation They are not durable. Therefore, it is foreseeable that general inflation will begin to stabilize and resume its downward trend and this is why we slightly adjust our forecasts of the general inflation in the short term,” said the official.

He National Consumer Price Index (INPC) closed January at 4.88 percent and accumulated three months of consecutive increases, and was at its highest level since June 2023. This acceleration was due to the increase in the non-underlying componentsince it went from 3.39 percent seen in December, to 5.24 percent in January.

In detail, the agricultural products reported an inflation of 9.75 percent annually, after the fruits and vegetables They rose 21.78 percent, their largest increase since August 2017.

“Regardless of this rebound that we are seeing in inflation due to the component not underlying “which is volatile, it is not qualitatively different from what we were seeing at the end of last year,” he noted. the governor of the Central Bank. With this, Banxico maintains its vision that the inflation will return to the 3.0 percent goal in the second quarter of 2025.

In the statement of the most recent monetary policy decisionhe central bank adjusted upwards its expectations for the indicator for the first three quarters of the year; while for the underlying It was only for the January-March period.

Cuts in sight

Even such is the progress of disinflationary process in the country that Governing Board will evaluate in future meetings, based on the information available, the possibility of lowering the reference interest rate. This would happen after ending its bullish cycle in March 2023, stated Rodríguez Ceja.

“Contemplate now the possibility of downward adjustments in our reference rate does not mean that priorities or the position of the Governing Board. In reality it is a reflection that the episode inflationary has been evolving and that the situation we find ourselves in now is very different from the one we experience in 2022, even in the first months of 2023.”

Rodríguez Ceja stressed that throughout the episode inflationary have endorsed their mandate of price stability through their actions and communication.

“More than labeling the position of the Governing Board I would say that this has been, at all times, a commitment to achieving his mandate,” he indicated.

Fed decisions

In this process of evaluating a reduction in interest rate, he Bank of Mexico will make its decision based on various factors and data, including the actions of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed)although this does not make it a determining element.

The Governor of the Central Bank acknowledged that although they will be aware of the decision made by the Fed in March, and in general the messages transmitted by this institution, each monetary organization takes into account factors from its country for its Actions.

An example of this is that Banxico It began its upward cycle due to the advance of inflation in June 2021 and the Fed did the same until March 2022.

“We do not follow the mechanics of the Fed…, each institution takes into account all the internal and external factors that could affect its outlook and this is why we have a difference between the monetary cycles of the countries,” concluded the central banker.

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