The mood of economic actors and financial agents seems like the beginning of a speed race to see who will benefit most from this change of era. Ready with money offered by banks and investment funds, waiting for the whistle to blow to take advantage of this new “gold rush,” they anticipate the rearrangement of global production chains that is already underway.
Our economic and geographic position places us as the track on which this race will take place and, so far, the possible benefits have infected investors. That does not mean that the floor is free of certain potholes and deformations; Only inflation had an unexpected rebound that will only compensate for the good performance, also surprising, of the Mexican economy in most of the first quarter.
However, the optimism is still there and also the anxiety to meet the expectations of an economic development that could open a continental integration that was only proposed in theory and that is now taking some steps towards concrete facts. It is enough to review many of the statements that were given at the last national Banking Convention and in several recent official reports from central banks.
An interesting one is the intersection of North America’s economies at a level that could merge several of its industries to form a never-before-seen industrial bloc. American companies could consider changing their headquarters to Mexico and some Mexican companies could ship from Canada. Let’s take into account the enormous competitive advantage of the Interoceanic Train and the freight traffic forecasts in both directions of the Pacific and the Atlantic.
In a world that registers the same conflicts, but in different conditions and varied contexts, the region to which we belong looks like the best alternative for a new international commercial impulse. Here you have the raw materials, the exchange routes and the territory to establish the factories that produce the components of the future. And also the energy sources.
In comparison, Europe continues to show signs of economic and social exhaustion, the conflict in Ukraine is a wound that produces daily losses, to which are added those that occur in the Middle East and whose development has put not only that part of the world at risk , but to the entire planet. War, we must always insist, is a terrible business.
Africa maintains uneven economic progress, weighed down by other regional conflicts that recur too periodically, which prevents short-term plans. The recent approval in the United Kingdom so that its migrants can be sent to Rwanda (which could be extended to other nations, including some on our continent) is a difficult bet to understand at this time, because labor is necessary in England and in many European countries, although there are no immediate conditions of space and public resources for an orderly incorporation. This cannot be an excuse for not making two decisions: opening the doors to workers who are required and investing so that they can stay in their countries of origin on the African continent. Does it sound similar to what happens to us here? Of course yes, because it is a very similar situation.
The differences are that the supply chains and the behavior of the Mexican economy have driven an unemployment rate to a historic low level in our country and a solid generation of jobs in the United States and Canada. The perspective that North America will be the region that will first make the leap into the new economic era is a reality.
The marks are drawn at the exit and will be occupied by the T-MEC countries according to the results of their next update, which is expected to occur without surprises. However, it would be advisable for other runners to enter the competition, preferably from Latin America so that the development is continental. Brazil, Chile, Argentina, are countries that meet the requirements; But are not the only ones. Central America and the rest of South America should also be considered.
Because an integration that does not take into account migration, better working conditions to reduce it, the reduction of inequality and authentic competition in its markets will be condemned to repeat errors and increase the unrest that has delegitimized globalization as a form of development. The goal we must reach in this race must be that of a just social economy, which benefits the majority and ensures conditions of prosperity for those who seek it.
