After yesterday’s debate, we have entered the final stretch of the electoral campaigns.
In exactly one month, on May 29will be the last day on which proselytizing activities can be carried out.
Perhaps one could think that, in three-month campaigns, the last third is still missing of these, which is no small thing.
But the reality is that the actual campaigns have been much longer.
In the case of Brunetteif we consider as a starting point the dinner on the night of Monday, June 5, with the calls corksthey’ll be almost 11 months of activity internal or external proselytizer.
For him opposition frontif we consider the announcement of the rules to define its presidential candidate as the starter, which took place last July 3, they are almost 10 months of political activity.
In the case of Citizen movementif the starting point were the registration of Jorge Álvarez Máynez as a presidential pre-candidate, which occurred on January 10, then they are just under four months.
That is to say, the electoral competition has been long.
If we could make the analogy with a marathon, after last night’s debate, perhaps it is as if we were at kilometer 35, already entering a period in which there can be no mistakes, but in which Opportunities cannot be wasted either. that they present themselves.
The logic of this last month will be different for each candidate.
Claudia Sheinbaum will continue with the task of keep and, if possible, expand the advantage.
Perhaps he will concentrate the last few weeks on trying to convey the voting intention that he has and that gives him a wide advantage, to candidates for legislative positions or to the governorships and head of government, since not in all competitions Morena has the same advantage as in the presidential election.
Xochitl Galvez will have the task of overcome the disadvantage what he has regarding Sheinbaum.
She herself has said on several occasions that the main challenge is increase electoral participation, Although it would be more precise to say that what they should look for is that increase in participation, but in the segments that are favorable to them, such as the urban middle classes or entities in which the PAN or PRI have a greater presence.
For Jorge Álvarez Máynez, the key will be consolidate its presence. It was a candidate who arrived as a second option and with a great disadvantage compared to the candidates who had de facto been campaigning for a long time before.
It seems to me that if he manages to achieve the percentage of votes that the polls give him, it will have been a successful campaign.
The internal equipment stresses are revealed in these stages.
In the case of those who are ahead in the polls, it is likely that the push to obtain positions, given that reaching the government in a few months is perceived as something tangible, and no one wants to miss the opportunity.
In the case of candidates who are behind, despair can spread to see how the days go by without observing relevant changes and you can also give the distribution of blame even before the defeat has occurred, but already anticipating it.
I conclude by pointing out that the composition of Congress will be as important as the result of the presidential election.
The future would be very different if Morena wins the presidency of the Republic and obtains qualified majorities in both chambers compared to another situation in which, even though it remains the main political force in the country, Morena is left with a simple majority.
Everything will be defined in just over a month.
