April 25 (UPI) — University of Pennsylvania scientists are predicting an estimated 33 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Scientists Michael Mann and, Shannon Christiansen and alumnus Michael Kozar made the forecast for the approaching hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.
While their target is 33 named storms, their prediction ranges between 27 and 39 this year.
“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming,” said Mann, director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and Media.
The forecast examines several key climate variables.
“It takes into account the current Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures, which significantly influence hurricane development by providing the necessary heat and energy,” Christiansen said.
“We also factor in the El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions, as shifts between El Niño and La Niña can dramatically alter atmospheric patterns that either enhance or suppress hurricane activity.”
If El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions neutralize later this year, Mann and Christiansen predict slightly reduced activity ranging between 25 and 36 storms.
Earlier this month, Colorado State University also predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season, attributed to record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
CSU’s Tropical Weather and Climate team predicted 23 named storms and said 11 are expected to become hurricanes.
The CSU forecast predicts a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline.
That compares to an average landfall chance of 43% from 1880 to 2020.
